Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:29:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1b9b…ebe7 sports 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$209 (-10%) realized −$224 · open +$15
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate46%16W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$125now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$45
7 days+$31
14 days+$31
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$188
politics 4% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-28.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -4.2% -13.4% 75% 50% +8.4%
≤30d 6 -36.2% -42.2% 50% 33% -21.2%
≤90d 35 -20.7% -28.3% 46% 43% -20.2%
all 35 -20.7% -28.3% 46% 43% -20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.3% 43% -20.2%
10% -35.1% 43% -27.8%
15% -41.4% 34% -34.8%
20% -47.2% 29% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$41 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$125
Realized−$224
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses16 / 19
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions3
Markets (closed)35 / 38
History coverage70d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. Samsung Lions Samsung Lions 63¢ 100¢ $50 $79 +$29 (+59%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves San Francisco Giants 49¢ 44¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-9%)
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos Hanwha Eagles 33¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears Jun 17 $51 +$25 +49%
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. Samsung Lions Jun 16 $80 +$20 +25%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions Jun 14 $11 +$1 +9%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 4 Winner May 25 $19 −$19 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 3 Winner May 25 $41 −$40 -98%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Samsung Lions May 17 $63 −$62 -99%
KBO: LG Twins vs. SSG Landers May 17 $51 −$50 -99%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner May 17 $81 +$31 +38%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 16 $72 −$14 -20%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner May 16 $153 −$151 -99%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Samsung Lions May 16 $10 +$6 +59%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. KT Wiz May 16 $30 +$23 +76%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 16 $122 −$120 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) May 16 $101 +$65 +64%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 209.5 May 16 $103 −$19 -18%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Doosan Bears May 15 $92 +$65 +70%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Samsung Lions May 15 $20 −$20 -99%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 14 $101 +$34 +34%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers May 14 $41 +$30 +74%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner May 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $73 +$53 +73%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 204.5 May 14 $51 +$44 +86%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner May 13 $21 −$13 -62%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner May 13 $102 +$26 +26%
LoL: T1 vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner May 13 $82 −$80 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea May 12 $32 −$32 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) May 12 $52 +$50 +96%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 12 $51 +$34 +67%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner May 11 $42 +$65 +156%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner May 10 $10 −$9 -89%
Thunder vs. Clippers: O/U 225.5 Apr 09 $11 −$11 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 08 $10 −$10 -97%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Apr 08 $46 −$45 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. Samsung Lions BUY Samsung Lions 63¢ $51 1h
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos BUY Hanwha Eagles 33¢ $10 1h
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears SELL KT Wiz 95¢ $75 1h
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears BUY KT Wiz 63¢ $51 3h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 49¢ $51 14h
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. Samsung Lions BUY Samsung Lions 77¢ $30 26h
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. Samsung Lions BUY Samsung Lions 81¢ $50 26h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $15 2d
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions SELL Samsung Lions 91¢ $12 3d
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions BUY Samsung Lions 83¢ $11 3d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA 41¢ $19 23d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA 44¢ $20 23d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA 39¢ $20 23d
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Samsung Lions BUY Samsung Lions 35¢ $11 31d
KBO: LG Twins vs. SSG Landers BUY SSG Landers 56¢ $51 31d
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Samsung Lions BUY Samsung Lions 61¢ $52 31d
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner BUY BNK FEARX 72¢ $81 32d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes 18¢ $58 32d
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Red Force 41¢ $20 32d
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Red Force 44¢ $32 32d
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Red Force 64¢ $101 32d
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Samsung Lions SELL Samsung Lions 100¢ $16 32d
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. KT Wiz SELL Hanwha Eagles 100¢ $54 32d
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 74¢ $20 32d
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 45¢ $102 32d
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Samsung Lions BUY Samsung Lions 62¢ $10 32d
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. KT Wiz BUY Hanwha Eagles 56¢ $30 32d
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) SELL Spurs 100¢ $166 32d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 209.5 SELL Over 60¢ $81 32d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 209.5 BUY Over 50¢ $103 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $124.75 · official $124.75 (match) · 74 history records