Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:24:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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1B 0x1b9b…bc4a sports 1283 markets active 1h ago coverage 340d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 339d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,607 (-2%) realized −$1,606 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate43%554W / 723L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day8.9pace
Fees−$200est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$151
7 days+$337
14 days+$332
30 days+$228
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$278
other 19% −$498
world 1% +$84
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +50.1% +35.8% 58% 58% +51.3%
≤30d 60 +7.7% -2.6% 43% 43% -1.9%
≤90d 246 +3.6% -6.2% 43% 43% -6.8%
all 1277 -0.7% -10.2% 43% 42% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 42% -10.4%
10% -18.8% 41% -18.9%
15% -26.6% 41% -26.8%
20% -33.8% 40% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$40 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

340d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized−$1,606
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses554 / 723
Est. fees paid−$200
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1277 / 1283
History coverage340d ⚠
Avg bet$51
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1277 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) St. Louis Cardinals 38¢ 38¢ $51 $51 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Milwaukee Brewers 36¢ 36¢ $50 $50 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 498 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $13 −$13 -98%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 16 $54 +$86 +158%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Jun 16 $52 +$78 +150%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Jun 14 $37 −$36 -98%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) Jun 13 $52 +$78 +152%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $40 +$48 +121%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Jun 12 $41 +$40 +98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $52 +$73 +140%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $52 −$3 -6%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Jun 11 $33 +$62 +188%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Jun 10 $44 −$43 -98%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) Jun 10 $34 −$34 -98%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Jun 10 $41 +$69 +165%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $41 −$40 -98%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) Jun 09 $52 +$32 +61%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 07 $48 −$48 -99%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) Jun 06 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) Jun 05 $54 +$33 +62%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 02 $52 −$3 -7%
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) Jun 02 $47 −$46 -98%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) Jun 02 $38 +$52 +134%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) Jun 01 $53 −$4 -7%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) Jun 01 $27 −$26 -98%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 01 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5) Jun 01 $52 −$51 -98%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) May 31 $50 +$49 +97%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) May 31 $52 −$51 -98%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) May 31 $50 +$42 +83%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) May 31 $52 +$70 +136%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) May 29 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) May 29 $52 −$51 -98%
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) May 28 $57 +$70 +123%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5 May 28 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) May 27 $52 −$51 -98%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) May 27 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) May 27 $51 +$74 +146%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) May 27 $52 +$83 +158%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) May 25 $53 −$52 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 25 $27 +$28 +105%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) May 25 $31 +$3 +11%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) May 25 $52 −$52 -100%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) May 25 $53 −$52 -98%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) May 25 $52 +$86 +167%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) May 25 $52 +$78 +152%
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox May 25 $37 −$37 -98%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) May 25 $30 −$29 -98%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) May 25 $24 −$24 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) May 24 $53 −$26 -49%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) May 24 $52 −$51 -98%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) May 23 $52 +$79 +151%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 36¢ $16 40m
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 36¢ $2 1h
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 36¢ $33 1h
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) BUY St. Louis Cardinals 38¢ $52 1h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 21¢ $13 15h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 40¢ $51 2d
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) BUY New York Mets 34¢ $42 2d
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) BUY St. Louis Cardinals 40¢ $52 2d
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) BUY Athletics 38¢ $54 2d
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) BUY Toronto Blue Jays 30¢ $37 2d
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) BUY Baltimore Orioles 39¢ $52 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 92¢ $46 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 84¢ $42 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 39¢ $40 5d
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 81¢ $81 5d
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 40¢ $41 5d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 41¢ $52 6d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets SELL St. Louis Cardinals 42¢ $50 6d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets BUY St. Louis Cardinals 43¢ $52 6d
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) BUY St. Louis Cardinals 34¢ $33 6d
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 43¢ $4 6d
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 43¢ $39 6d
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) BUY San Francisco Giants 34¢ $34 6d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 33¢ $20 7d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 41¢ $21 7d
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) BUY Detroit Tigers 37¢ $41 7d
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) SELL San Francisco Giants 55¢ $0 8d
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) SELL San Francisco Giants 55¢ $10 8d
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) SELL San Francisco Giants 55¢ $3 8d
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) SELL San Francisco Giants 55¢ $9 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.32 · official $100.32 (match) · 3500 history records