Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:44:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1ba0…7380 crypto 289 markets active 1h ago coverage 108d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$640 (-2%) realized −$640 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate44%128W / 161L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$129per market
Trades / day11.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 108d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$3,254
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +8.1% -2.2% 45% 45% -14.6%
≤30d 23 -5.4% -14.4% 39% 39% -26.9%
≤90d 144 -6.8% -15.7% 45% 41% -20.0%
all 289 -7.6% -16.4% 44% 39% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 39% -18.1%
10% -24.4% 28% -25.9%
15% -31.7% 24% -33.1%
20% -38.4% 19% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$59 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$640
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses128 / 161
Open positions0
Markets (closed)289 / 289
History coverage108d
Avg bet$129
Trades / day11.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 289 Trades
no open positions (124 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 20 $61 −$57 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 20 $89 −$77 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 20 $88 −$69 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 20 $68 −$58 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 20 $97 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$41 +155%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 20 $54 +$132 +246%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 20 $49 +$45 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 20 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 20 $36 +$44 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $116 −$36 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $27 −$21 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $174 −$124 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $81 −$77 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $26 +$56 +217%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 05 $15 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 05 $9 +$12 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 05 $7 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 04 $50 −$48 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 04 $22 +$28 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Apr 27 $172 −$87 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Apr 27 $187 +$146 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Apr 27 $250 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Apr 26 $124 −$22 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Apr 26 $94 −$61 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Apr 26 $52 −$15 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Apr 26 $99 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Apr 26 $67 −$43 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Apr 26 $46 +$43 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Apr 26 $70 −$67 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Apr 26 $96 −$22 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Apr 26 $385 +$193 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Apr 26 $329 +$25 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Apr 26 $38 −$9 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Apr 13 $6 −$3 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Apr 13 $188 −$138 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Apr 13 $289 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Apr 13 $60 −$47 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Apr 13 $106 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Apr 13 $87 +$81 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Apr 13 $120 −$113 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Apr 10 $53 −$21 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Apr 10 $114 −$37 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Apr 10 $7 −$4 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Apr 09 $171 −$161 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Apr 09 $150 −$21 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Apr 09 $176 +$18 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 4¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 4¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $68 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $69 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $87 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $17 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $82 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $45 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $93 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $49 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $80 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1244 history records