Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:23:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1ba1…1ce4 sports 148 markets active 2h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$21,078 (-2%) realized −$21,032 · open −$46
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%76W / 71L
Whale WR49%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6,693per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$11,511est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$5,009now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$13,855
14 days−$23,625
30 days−$52,783
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$27,795
other 0% −$119
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -5.3% -14.3% 50% 50% -41.5%
≤30d 21 -27.8% -34.6% 38% 38% -49.5%
≤90d 121 -9.7% -18.3% 47% 47% -18.4%
all 147 -0.8% -10.3% 52% 52% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.3% 52% -12.1%
10% ← realistic here -18.9% 52% -20.5%
15% -26.7% 52% -28.2%
20% -33.9% 52% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 49% (≥$9,223) neutral
Persistence
early +10% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
8.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5,867 vs −$6,673 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$5,009
Realized−$21,032
Unrealized−$46
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses76 / 71
Whale WR (big bets)49%
Est. fees paid−$11,511
Open positions1
Markets (closed)147 / 148
History coverage115d
Avg bet$6,693
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 147 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Under 55¢ 55¢ $5,055 $5,009 −$46 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $4,747 −$4,680 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $3,850 +$3,449 +90%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $16,560 −$16,320 -99%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $4,192 +$3,908 +93%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $4,833 −$4,766 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5,346 +$4,554 +85%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 13 $595 −$586 -99%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 10 $4,800 −$4,732 -99%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 08 $4,515 −$4,451 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 06 $4,088 +$3,812 +93%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5 Jun 05 $4,327 −$4,266 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 04 $4,945 +$4,255 +86%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 31 $4,361 +$3,605 +83%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 25 $4,031 +$3,469 +86%
Burnley FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: O/U 2.5 May 25 $4,393 +$4,437 +101%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 May 24 $12,160 −$11,995 -99%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 2.5 May 24 $9,759 −$9,620 -99%
SS Lazio vs. Pisa SC: O/U 2.5 May 23 $4,966 −$4,894 -98%
Deportivo Alavés vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 2.5 May 23 $9,478 −$9,346 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 22 $4,763 −$4,698 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) May 22 $3,974 −$3,917 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 May 21 $4,270 −$4,210 -99%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) May 21 $10,181 +$9,119 +90%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 May 20 $8,537 −$8,416 -99%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 20 $10,444 +$9,356 +90%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5) May 19 $9,147 +$8,193 +90%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 3.5 May 19 $16,701 +$13,819 +83%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 222.5 May 18 $3,985 −$3,941 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 205.5 May 18 $4,489 +$3,711 +83%
Everton FC vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 2.5 May 18 $9,391 +$8,446 +90%
Leeds United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 2.5 May 17 $15,297 −$15,080 -99%
VfB Stuttgart vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 3.5 May 10 $7,438 +$6,149 +83%
Manchester City FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 3.5 May 10 $10,162 +$9,240 +91%
Levante UD vs. CA Osasuna: O/U 2.5 May 08 $3,219 −$3,185 -99%
Knicks vs. 76ers: O/U 213.5 May 08 $4,325 −$4,264 -99%
Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 209.5 May 08 $4,058 +$3,492 +86%
Spread: Thunder (-15.5) May 07 $9,077 −$8,954 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 214.5 May 05 $5,937 −$5,858 -99%
Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5 May 05 $4,009 −$3,975 -99%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 May 05 $12,132 −$11,960 -99%
AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 2.5 May 05 $4,212 +$3,642 +86%
US Cremonese vs. SS Lazio: O/U 2.5 May 04 $11,348 −$11,200 -99%
Aston Villa FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 2.5 May 04 $5,257 +$4,019 +76%
Spread: Cavaliers (-7.5) May 04 $5,275 +$4,725 +90%
Real Betis Balompié vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 2.5 May 03 $4,456 −$4,390 -98%
Spread: Pistons (-9.5) May 03 $6,132 −$6,050 -99%
FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 2.5 May 03 $4,135 −$4,108 -99%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 3.5 May 03 $3,528 +$3,472 +98%
Arsenal FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 2.5 May 03 $12,299 +$7,830 +64%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $3,536 −$119 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $5,123 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $4,747 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $3,850 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $16,560 5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $4,833 6d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 51¢ $4,192 6d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Spurs 51¢ $595 7d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $3 7d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $154 7d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $1,026 7d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $6 7d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $79 7d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $1,416 7d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $295 7d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $23 7d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $6 7d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $1 7d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $22 7d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $1 7d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $2 7d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $3 7d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $10 7d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $117 7d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $6 7d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $123 7d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $2,051 7d
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) BUY Knicks 52¢ $4,800 10d
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) BUY Knicks 52¢ $4,515 12d
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) BUY Knicks 51¢ $4,088 15d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5 BUY Over 53¢ $4,327 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,008.99 · official $5,008.99 (match) · 1364 history records