Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:35:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
1B 0x1ba3…5f54 other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$271 (+9%) realized +$567 · open −$296
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%5W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$248per market
Trades / day12.9pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$297now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% −$144
sports 21% +$147
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +19.5% +8.1% 50% 50% +1.9%
≤30d 10 +19.5% +8.1% 50% 50% +1.9%
≤90d 10 +19.5% +8.1% 50% 50% +1.9%
all 10 +19.5% +8.1% 50% 50% +1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.1% 50% +1.9%
10% -2.2% 50% -7.8%
15% -11.7% 50% -16.8%
20% -20.3% 30% -24.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$183 vs −$123 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$297
Realized+$567
Unrealized−$296
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions2
Markets (closed)10 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$248
Trades / day12.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Colombia leading at halftime? Yes 54¢ 35¢ $343 $222 −$121 (-35%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 35¢ 10¢ $250 $75 −$175 (-70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $26 +$81 +316%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 2 Panama? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $31 −$2 -5%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $36 +$13 +37%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $334 +$324 +97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $882 −$548 -62%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $577 +$301 +52%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $31 −$27 -86%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $411 +$197 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colombia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 54¢ $348 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 35¢ $255 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 2h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 3h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 SELL Over 12¢ $29 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 5h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? SELL Yes 20¢ $49 5h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 12¢ $31 5h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 14¢ $36 5h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $658 5h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $334 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 30¢ $334 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $882 10h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $577 26h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 7¢ $31 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $411 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $297.44 · official $355.40 · 20 history records