Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:54:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
1B 0x1ba8…2cc1 weather 496 markets active 0h ago coverage 534d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,088 (+1%) realized +$1,069 · open +$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate97%477W / 14L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$367per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$3,425now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$116
7 days−$349
14 days−$155
30 days−$129
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 32% −$414
economics 18% +$437
politics 14% +$951
finance 14% +$388
world 8% +$227
other 4% +$35
crypto 4% −$630
sports 3% +$37
tech 1% +$25
culture 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -1.5% -10.9% 98% 0% -11.4%
≤30d 334 -0.4% -9.8% 99% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 421 -1.2% -10.6% 98% 0% -9.4%
all 491 -1.2% -10.6% 97% 1% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 1% -9.0%
10% -19.1% 0% -17.7%
15% -27.0% 0% -25.6%
20% -34.1% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$119 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.62 per $1 lost it wins $1.62
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

534d coverage
Net worth$3,425
Realized+$1,069
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses477 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Open positions5
Markets (closed)491 / 496
History coverage534d
Avg bet$367
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 491 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $2,430 $2,448 +$18 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $467 $468 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $347 $347 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $118 $118 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 19? Jun 20 $250 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 19? Jun 20 $500 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 19? Jun 20 $58 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 19? Jun 20 $500 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 19? Jun 19 $500 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $65 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $36 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C or higher on June Jun 19 $112 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 18 $4,866 +$109 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $250 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $500 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 17 $165 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 17 $302 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $250 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 16 $290 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $158 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on June 15? Jun 15 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $231 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 15? Jun 15 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $500 −$500 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 14? Jun 15 $125 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 78°F or higher on June 14? Jun 15 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 14? Jun 15 $500 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 14? Jun 15 $500 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? Jun 15 $322 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? Jun 15 $500 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $249 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 14? Jun 14 $250 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $250 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $500 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $500 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $216 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $84 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $478 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $500 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 13? Jun 14 $0 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 13? Jun 14 $500 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $250 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $47 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 13? Jun 13 $99 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $139 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $250 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 13 $31 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 13 $95 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $22 10m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $22 13m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $117 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $77 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $167 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $107 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $295 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $52 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $500 6h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $48 12h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $189 12h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $8 12h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $8 12h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $32 12h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $14 12h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $485 12h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $10 12h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $15 12h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $500 21h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C or higher on June BUY No 100¢ $9 21h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C or higher on June BUY No 100¢ $17 22h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C or higher on June BUY No 100¢ $2 22h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C or higher on June BUY No 100¢ $17 22h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C or higher on June BUY No 100¢ $67 22h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $25 22h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $11 22h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $15 24h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $50 25h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $3,735 38h
Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $451 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,425.26 · official $3,425.26 (match) · 1709 history records