Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:19:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
1B 0x1ba9…8fa2 crypto 650 markets active 2h ago coverage 236d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$247 (-2%) realized −$247 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate74%479W / 170L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$23
14 days+$99
30 days+$135
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$331
finance 7% +$134
weather 1% −$63
sports 1% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +23.3% +11.6% 100% 100% +11.6%
≤30d 13 +20.4% +9.0% 100% 77% +8.6%
≤90d 201 -6.8% -15.7% 64% 37% -7.6%
all 649 -0.7% -10.2% 74% 34% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 34% -11.2%
10% -18.8% 26% -19.7%
15% -26.6% 25% -27.5%
20% -33.8% 24% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$8 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

236d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized−$247
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses479 / 170
Open positions1
Markets (closed)649 / 650
History coverage236d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 649 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 23? Down 99¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 22? Jun 22 $101 +$23 +23%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $100 +$2 +2%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $104 +$21 +20%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $83 +$20 +24%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $63 +$20 +32%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $50 +$12 +25%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $38 +$12 +32%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $35 +$3 +7%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $29 +$6 +21%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $20 +$9 +46%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $17 +$3 +18%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 1? Jun 02 $15 +$2 +14%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 26? May 26 $15 $0 +1%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 20? May 20 $15 $0 +1%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 15? May 15 $16 −$16 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 14? May 14 $30 $0 +1%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 13? May 13 $15 +$1 +8%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 12? May 12 $28 +$1 +4%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 11? May 11 $26 +$3 +12%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 7? May 07 $22 +$2 +9%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 4? May 04 $15 +$2 +12%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 29? Apr 30 $17 +$4 +26%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 28? Apr 28 $17 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Apr 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Apr 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Apr 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Apr 28 $53 −$53 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 27? Apr 27 $16 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Apr 02 $22 −$21 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Apr 02 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Apr 02 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Apr 02 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Apr 02 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Apr 02 $8 +$6 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Apr 02 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Apr 02 $3 +$3 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Apr 02 $1 +$1 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Apr 02 $15 +$13 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Apr 01 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Apr 01 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Apr 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Apr 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 23? BUY Down 99¢ $100 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 22? BUY Down 80¢ $101 31h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 98¢ $100 8d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 83¢ $104 11d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 11? BUY Up 80¢ $83 12d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 10? BUY Down 75¢ $63 13d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 9? BUY Up 80¢ $50 14d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 8? BUY Up 75¢ $38 15d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 5? BUY Down 93¢ $35 18d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 4? BUY Down 82¢ $29 19d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 3? BUY Down 68¢ $20 20d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 2? BUY Down 84¢ $17 21d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 1? BUY Up 87¢ $15 22d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 26? BUY Up 99¢ $15 27d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 20? BUY Up 99¢ $15 33d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 15? BUY Up 39¢ $16 39d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 14? BUY Up 99¢ $30 39d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 13? SELL Up 71¢ $16 41d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 13? BUY Up 66¢ $12 41d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 13? BUY Up 66¢ $3 41d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 12? BUY Down 96¢ $28 41d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 11? SELL Up 49¢ $15 43d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 11? BUY Up 44¢ $13 43d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 11? SELL Up 47¢ $4 43d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 11? SELL Up 47¢ $10 43d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 11? BUY Up 42¢ $13 43d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 7? SELL Up 58¢ $12 46d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 7? BUY Up 53¢ $4 46d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 7? BUY Up 53¢ $7 46d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 7? SELL Up 64¢ $1 47d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.40 · official $100.35 (match) · 1531 history records