Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:03:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1baa…0b7f other 186 markets active 0h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$873 (+0%) realized +$872 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate23%43W / 142L
Whale WR2%big bets
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$1,413per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$253now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$21
14 days−$51
30 days−$175
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 40% −$139
other 39% −$1,959
sports 15% +$2,930
economics 2% −$4
world 2% −$2
culture 1% −$5
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 39 -1.8% -11.2% 5% 3% -9.8%
≤90d 112 -6.6% -15.5% 5% 3% -10.9%
all 185 +2.3% -7.4% 23% 10% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 10% -9.2%
10% -16.3% 10% -17.9%
15% -24.4% 9% -25.9%
20% -31.8% 6% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 2% (≥$1,866) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$87 vs −$21 · ×4.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$253
Realized+$872
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses43 / 142
Whale WR (big bets)2%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)185 / 186
History coverage149d
Avg bet$1,413
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 185 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $252 $253 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $1,077 −$2 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $2,142 −$2 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $260 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $2,836 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $1,604 −$2 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 17 $2,149 −$3 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $3,390 −$5 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $2,864 −$3 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $2,778 −$4 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $2,037 −$3 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $846 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $2,256 −$3 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $852 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $712 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 11 $835 −$1 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $754 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $5,748 −$9 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $875 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $1,902 −$3 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $4,862 −$5 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 08 $1,009 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 08 $1,046 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $2,509 −$4 -0%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 06 $84 −$84 -100%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $888 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $1,580 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $1,962 −$3 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 04 $76 −$76 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 04 $57 +$76 +134%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,867 −$3 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,020 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 02 $463 +$1 +0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $3,673 −$5 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $1,813 −$3 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $2,658 −$3 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $1,179 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $2,440 −$4 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $2,466 −$3 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $2,354 −$3 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 24 $4,648 −$6 -0%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $85 +$55 +65%
Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals May 23 $67 +$49 +73%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $1,034 −$2 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $1,168 −$2 -0%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 22 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Solana reach $140 in May? May 19 $674 −$3 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 19 $1,306 −$2 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 18 $1,353 −$2 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 18 $1,357 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $1,347 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $279 6m
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $279 1h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $341 20h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $342 22h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $260 25h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $260 27h
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $219 2d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $219 2d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $283 5d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $283 5d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $840 5d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $841 5d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $762 6d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $763 6d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $809 6d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $810 6d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $934 7d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $936 7d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $757 7d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $758 7d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $906 7d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $907 8d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $845 8d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $846 8d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $797 8d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $798 8d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $920 9d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $921 9d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $851 10d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $852 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $252.60 · official $252.60 (match) · 603 history records