Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:47:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1bac…d241 sports 437 markets active 1h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$744 (-1%) realized −$907 · open +$163
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate37%161W / 269L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$129per market
Trades / day12.5pace
Fees−$865est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$1,416now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$678
7 days−$161
14 days+$1,757
30 days+$2,269
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$539
other 3% −$738
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -11.4% -19.8% 37% 37% -12.8%
≤30d 210 -3.5% -12.7% 40% 40% -0.9%
≤90d 430 -10.2% -18.7% 37% 35% -11.9%
all 430 -10.2% -18.7% 37% 35% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.7% 35% -11.9%
10% -26.5% 34% -20.3%
15% -33.6% 32% -28.0%
20% -40.1% 31% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -15% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$138 vs −$88 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$1,416
Realized−$907
Unrealized+$163
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses161 / 269
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$865
Open positions7
Markets (closed)430 / 437
History coverage76d
Avg bet$129
Trades / day12.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 430 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner T1 Academy 43¢ 100¢ $196 $456 +$261 (+133%)
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Spirit 46¢ 48¢ $383 $396 +$12 (+3%)
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs Hive 50¢ 100¢ $185 $370 +$185 (+100%)
Counter-Strike: K27 vs SHISHKA - Map 1 Winner K27 51¢ 100¢ $98 $192 +$94 (+95%)
Map Handicap: K27 (-1.5) vs SHISHKA (+1.5) SHISHKA 50¢ 0¢ $241 $2 −$239 (-99%)
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 54¢ 0¢ $81 $0 −$81 (-100%)
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs KT Rolster Challengers 49¢ 0¢ $69 $0 −$69 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 161 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $9 −$8 -98%
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $77 −$76 -98%
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $72 −$71 -98%
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout Jun 18 $68 −$66 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $133 +$130 +98%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $74 +$115 +156%
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Gr Jun 18 $41 +$77 +188%
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag Jun 18 $131 +$143 +109%
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Sta Jun 18 $53 +$81 +152%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 17 $80 +$78 +97%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $66 +$66 +101%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $70 +$83 +119%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $238 +$145 +61%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South Ameri Jun 17 $21 −$21 -98%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $79 −$78 -98%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $119 −$17 -14%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $218 −$215 -98%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $80 −$78 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $80 −$80 -99%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $99 −$97 -98%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $49 +$76 +155%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $89 +$51 +57%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 15 $73 +$94 +128%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $67 −$66 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $108 −$108 -100%
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $20 −$19 -98%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $113 −$112 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $34 −$33 -98%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Betclic Apogee Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $70 −$69 -98%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $154 +$154 +100%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag Jun 14 $43 +$81 +188%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 14 $40 −$39 -98%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $43 +$77 +180%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? Jun 14 $48 −$48 -98%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $205 +$207 +101%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $106 −$104 -98%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $43 −$42 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $68 −$68 -100%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs BetBoom Team (+3.5) Jun 14 $256 −$252 -98%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $263 −$259 -99%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $14 −$14 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $184 −$180 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $53 −$52 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $36 −$35 -98%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 13 $35 −$35 -98%
Game Handicap: KCB (-1.5) vs Forsaken (+1.5) Jun 12 $100 +$98 +98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $43 +$93 +219%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $180 +$408 +226%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: K27 vs SHISHKA - Map 1 Winner BUY K27 53¢ $41 1h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs SHISHKA - Map 1 Winner BUY K27 50¢ $22 1h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs SHISHKA - Map 1 Winner BUY K27 50¢ $35 1h
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs BUY Hive 50¢ $93 1h
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs BUY Hive 50¢ $95 1h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 54¢ $82 2h
Map Handicap: K27 (-1.5) vs SHISHKA (+1.5) BUY SHISHKA 50¢ $245 2h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 38¢ $55 3h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 44¢ $32 3h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 44¢ $36 3h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 46¢ $75 3h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY KT Rolster Challengers 50¢ $35 3h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY KT Rolster Challengers 49¢ $27 3h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY KT Rolster Challengers 49¢ $7 3h
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba - Map 1 Winner BUY Coalesce 19¢ $2 5h
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba - Map 1 Winner BUY Coalesce 12¢ $7 5h
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba - Map 2 Winner BUY Coalesce 15¢ $14 5h
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba - Map 2 Winner BUY Coalesce 15¢ $15 5h
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba - Map 2 Winner BUY Coalesce 15¢ $16 5h
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba - Map 2 Winner BUY Coalesce 15¢ $16 5h
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba - Map 2 Winner BUY Coalesce 15¢ $16 5h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Spirit 46¢ $67 6h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner BUY Mentality Monster 28¢ $7 14h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Spirit 46¢ $43 15h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner BUY Mentality Monster 29¢ $33 15h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Spirit 46¢ $69 15h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Spirit 46¢ $71 15h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout BUY Mentality Monster 23¢ $2 15h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout BUY Mentality Monster 23¢ $14 15h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout BUY Mentality Monster 23¢ $24 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,416.14 · official $1,529.65 · 1325 history records