Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:27:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1B
0x1bad…e9e0
other · 277 markets active 2h ago
3.5score
+$116 +12%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$125 · open −$9
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$7
Realized+$125
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses163 / 111
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions3
Markets (closed)274 / 277
History coverage149d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit63%
Chart Positions 3 History 274 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days+$11
14 days+$46
30 days+$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 51¢ 68¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+34%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? No 53¢ 2¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-97%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? Yes 18¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $8 +$2 +27%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 +$3 +56%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $12 +$11 +91%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $13 +$6 +46%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-04? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 11 $8 +$2 +18%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-05? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $26 +$16 +60%
Will San Marino win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $17 +$2 +12%
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) Jun 05 $10 +$6 +63%
Spain vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 04 $7 +$2 +34%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $6 +$4 +65%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $4 +$4 +91%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $4 +$5 +124%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $13 +$11 +89%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $5 +$3 +69%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $10 +$7 +70%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $15 +$18 +119%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 24 $17 +$11 +65%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 22 $12 +$6 +54%
Will Real Racing Club win on 2026-05-16? May 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-16? May 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $5 +$6 +117%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $6 +$3 +53%
Will Celtic FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $10 +$10 +103%
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 3.5 May 15 $4 +$2 +42%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 13 $9 +$3 +35%
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $15 +$15 +98%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $4 +$1 +33%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 09 $5 +$9 +176%
Málaga CF vs. Real Sporting de Gijón: O/U 2.5 May 09 $2 +$2 +95%
Will Real Sporting de Gijón win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $16 +$7 +44%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 08 $8 +$3 +37%
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 07 $17 +$11 +62%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump say "Iran" during King Charles visit? May 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $2 +$3 +158%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 43% +$39
other 41% +$88
crypto 10% −$11
world 5% +$6
culture 1% −$3
politics 0% −$2
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 53¢ $10 1h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 69¢ $10 5h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $8 6h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 75¢ $8 6h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $5 7h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $23 22h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $5 27h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $12 27h
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 82¢ $19 46h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $13 2d
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 49¢ $4 2d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $12 4d
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-06-07? SELL No 94¢ $42 5d
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-06-07? BUY No 58¢ $26 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 39¢ $3 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 70¢ $10 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 34¢ $5 7d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-05? BUY No 14¢ $4 7d
Will San Marino win on 2026-06-05? SELL No 70¢ $19 7d
Will San Marino win on 2026-06-05? BUY No 61¢ $10 7d
Will San Marino win on 2026-06-05? BUY No 61¢ $7 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-04? BUY No 27¢ $2 8d
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) SELL Guatemala 99¢ $16 8d
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) BUY Guatemala 60¢ $10 8d
Spain vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 74¢ $9 8d
Spain vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $7 8d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? SELL Yes 86¢ $10 8d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 51¢ $6 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 61¢ $5 9d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -25.2% -32.3% 50% 50% +0.7%
≤30d 38 -3.5% -12.7% 58% 58% +3.9%
≤90d 121 -6.6% -15.5% 54% 52% +5.6%
all 274 -5.0% -14.0% 59% 49% +2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 49% +2.4%
10% -22.2% 43% -7.4%
15% -29.8% 36% -16.3%
20% -36.6% 30% -24.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.11 · official $7.11 (match) · 616 history records