Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T18:26:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
1B 0x1bae…e663 crypto 789 markets active 1h ago coverage 55d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 55d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$713 (+4%) realized +$713 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate59%465W / 324L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day36.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,794
7 days−$2,354
14 days−$2,122
30 days−$1,032
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,758
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 190 -65.4% -68.7% 19% 19% -47.1%
≤30d 565 -3.8% -13.0% 53% 53% -20.1%
≤90d 789 +6.9% -3.3% 59% 59% -1.2%
all 789 +6.9% -3.3% 59% 59% -1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.3% 59% -1.2%
10% ← realistic here -12.5% 58% -10.6%
15% -21.0% 57% -19.3%
20% -28.7% 57% -27.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$21 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$713
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses465 / 324
Open positions0
Markets (closed)789 / 789
History coverage55d ⚠
Avg bet$24
Trades / day36.5
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 789 Trades
no open positions (121 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 25 $28 −$28 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 25 $28 +$19 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 25 $58 −$57 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 25 $63 −$62 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 25 $70 −$69 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 25 $65 +$49 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 25 $46 +$33 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 25 $33 −$32 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 25 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 25 $34 +$26 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 25 $62 +$48 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 25 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 25 $35 −$34 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 25 $34 −$33 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 25 $35 +$26 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 25 $33 +$25 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 24 $57 −$55 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 24 $59 −$57 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 24 $58 +$40 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $6 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $6 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $12 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $28 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $36 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $6 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records