Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:21:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1bae…54f0 world 110 markets active 1h ago coverage 323d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$20 (-0%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate32%35W / 74L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$115per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% −$8
politics 19% −$2
other 18% −$4
sports 13% −$1
crypto 4% $0
economics 4% +$1
finance 3% +$1
tech 2% $0
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.8% -10.2% 33% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 23 -0.4% -9.8% 39% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 66 -0.7% -10.1% 33% 0% -9.6%
all 109 -1.9% -11.2% 32% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 0% -9.6%
10% -19.7% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

323d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses35 / 74
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)109 / 110
History coverage323d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 97¢ 96¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 25 $292 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $267 −$1 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 23 $30 −$1 -4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $101 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 20 $283 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $144 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 18 $274 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $145 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $33 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $282 −$1 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $311 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $105 −$3 -2%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $28 $0 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $158 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $488 −$3 -1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $145 −$1 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $217 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $157 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 03 $143 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 02 $95 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $154 +$1 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 31 $364 +$1 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $159 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 22 $8 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $76 −$1 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 21 $15 −$1 -8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $18 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $80 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $4 $0 -5%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 18 $15 +$1 +6%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $132 $0 +0%
Will Columbus Crew win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 18 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 18 $295 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 16 $7 $0 -6%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $10 $0 +3%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $2 $0 -8%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $144 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $142 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $145 −$1 -1%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $99 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $286 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $157 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $143 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $157 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 20 $143 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 14 $143 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 14 $26 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 13 $29 +$1 +4%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $142 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 64¢ $146 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 64¢ $146 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $132 6h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $133 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $75 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $58 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $132 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 13¢ $21 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 13¢ $21 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $20 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $127 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $147 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $101 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $101 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $133 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $133 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $132 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $132 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $12 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 6d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $88 7d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $37 7d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $8 7d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $133 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $146 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $145 7d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $19 7d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $14 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.86 · official $0.00 (match) · 463 history records