Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:34:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1bb4…4a5c crypto 114 markets active 0h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$74 (+4%) realized +$99 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate62%66W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$26
7 days−$19
14 days−$21
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$13
politics 5% −$29
world 3% +$6
other 2% −$5
sports 1% −$7
finance 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 90 -6.8% -15.7% 64% 49% -9.3%
≤30d 107 -10.6% -19.1% 62% 45% -10.0%
≤90d 107 -10.6% -19.1% 62% 45% -10.0%
all 107 -10.6% -19.1% 62% 45% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.1% 45% -10.0%
10% -26.9% 29% -18.6%
15% -33.9% 13% -26.5%
20% -40.4% 10% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$99
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses66 / 41
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)107 / 114
History coverage112d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Yes 19¢ 40¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+113%)
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 32¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+21%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $14 $1 −$13 (-96%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$9 (-95%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-89%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 29 $20 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 29 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 29 $15 +$4 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 29 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 29 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 29 $61 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 29 $31 +$6 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 29 $36 −$28 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 29 $36 −$6 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 29 $61 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 29 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 29 $21 −$11 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 29 $11 −$8 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 29 $16 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 29 $5 +$7 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 29 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 29 $16 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$6 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 29 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 29 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 29 $56 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 29 $101 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 29 $36 −$7 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 29 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 29 $16 −$13 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 29 $25 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 29 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 29 $15 −$4 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 29 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 29 $15 +$4 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 29 $21 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 29 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 29 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $1 +$1 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 28 $46 +$33 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 28 $21 −$13 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$24 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 28 $30 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 28 $18 −$11 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 28 $16 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 28 $25 +$8 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 28 $15 +$5 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 28 $25 +$9 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$8 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $25 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $11 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $20 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $25 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $37 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $25 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $27 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $25 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $29 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $25 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $7 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 13¢ $6 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $1 56m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.64 · official $5.82 (match) · 423 history records