Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:36:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1bb5…0c32 world 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 460d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$19 (-3%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate34%11W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$9
14 days−$19
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 82% −$19
other 11% $0
politics 2% $0
sports 2% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -13.1% -21.4% 25% 0% -13.0%
≤30d 16 -8.2% -16.9% 25% 0% -12.7%
≤90d 16 -8.2% -16.9% 25% 0% -12.7%
all 32 -9.5% -18.1% 34% 3% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.1% 3% -12.1%
10% -26.0% 3% -20.5%
15% -33.1% 0% -28.2%
20% -39.7% 0% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

460d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses11 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage460d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $26 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 18 $13 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $34 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $35 −$1 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $36 −$1 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $32 +$1 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $38 −$9 -23%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $39 +$1 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 08 $7 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $4 $0 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $88 −$1 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $40 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $41 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Dec 11 $7 +$2 +27%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Nov 21 $7 $0 +3%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Jul 05 $7 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Jul 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times June 27–July 4? Jul 02 $9 $0 -1%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 01 $9 $0 -2%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championshi Jun 26 $11 $0 -2%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ontario resume electricity surcharge to the U.S. by next Friday? Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon tweet 675-699 times March 14-21? Mar 16 $11 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $26 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $26 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 19¢ $4 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 19¢ $4 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 19¢ $13 12h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $26 15h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $26 15h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $24 23h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $24 26h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $7 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $34 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $34 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $34 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $35 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $35 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $36 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 77¢ $6 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 77¢ $26 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 75¢ $32 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 33¢ $29 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 44¢ $4 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $35 8d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $13 8d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $27 8d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 73¢ $39 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $4 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $4 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $7 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 94 history records