Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:16:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
1B 0x1bb9…b4c0 world 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$717 (+87%) realized +$737 · open −$20
Gross ROI / mkt +74% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +58% what you keep after slip
Net edge+58%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate39%7W / 11L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$92
7 days+$92
14 days+$92
30 days+$92
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% +$842
other 25% −$32
sports 18% −$52
finance 12% +$51
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+57.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +55.4% +40.6% 50% 50% +73.7%
≤30d 2 +55.4% +40.6% 50% 50% +73.7%
≤90d 10 -58.4% -62.4% 20% 10% -46.6%
all 18 +74.5% +57.8% 39% 33% +95.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +57.8% 33% +95.8%
10% +42.7% 33% +77.0%
15% +28.9% 33% +59.9%
20% +16.3% 33% +44.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -41% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +74% · $-wt +116% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +203% → late -54% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$165 vs −$30 · ×5.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.52 per $1 lost it wins $3.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$737
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses7 / 11
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage122d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 46¢ 16¢ $31 $10 −$20 (-66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $81 +$93 +114%
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 29 $96 −$1 -1%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $25 −$24 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $61 −$60 -98%
AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: Both Teams to Score May 04 $21 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 04 $5 $0 +5%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 04 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Apr 28 $31 −$31 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $41 −$41 -98%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? Apr 08 $42 −$42 -100%
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026? Mar 29 $27 +$21 +77%
Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026? Mar 28 $30 −$7 -22%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March? Mar 26 $100 +$51 +51%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30? Mar 26 $42 −$42 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Mar 26 $50 −$50 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026? Feb 28 $110 +$880 +800%
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $7 +$36 +533%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)? Feb 28 $11 +$77 +685%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 46¢ $81 1h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 41¢ $92 1h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $96 2h
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 21¢ $25 30d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 18¢ $61 30d
AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $21 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $6 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 56d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY Yes $11 56d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 62d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? BUY Yes 37¢ $41 62d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $42 81d
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026? SELL No 65¢ $48 92d
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026? BUY No 37¢ $18 93d
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026? BUY No 36¢ $9 93d
Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026? SELL No 11¢ $23 93d
Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $30 93d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March? SELL Yes 95¢ $151 95d
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30? BUY Yes 29¢ $42 95d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 47¢ $1 95d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 46¢ $1 95d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 47¢ $2 95d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 46¢ $26 95d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? BUY Yes 34¢ $50 95d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March? BUY Yes 63¢ $100 95d
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $133 121d
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $16 121d
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $841 121d
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $43 121d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)? SELL Yes 80¢ $63 121d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.32 · official $10.32 (match) · 35 history records