Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:35:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1bbe…bfca crypto 498 markets active 0h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$18 (-2%) realized −$12 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate40%196W / 298L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day25.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days+$13
14 days−$13
30 days−$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$67
sports 10% $0
other 2% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 118 +1.0% -8.6% 36% 36% -5.5%
≤30d 494 -7.6% -16.4% 40% 39% -14.5%
≤90d 494 -7.6% -16.4% 40% 39% -14.5%
all 494 -7.6% -16.4% 40% 39% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.4% 39% -14.5%
10% ← realistic here -24.4% 39% -22.6%
15% -31.7% 38% -30.1%
20% -38.4% 35% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$12
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses196 / 298
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)494 / 498
History coverage30d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day25.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 494 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Over 30¢ 16¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-48%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 19¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 244 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 +$4 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$19 +298%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$5 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +124%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$5 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$12 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$4 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$5 +168%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $3 +$10 +320%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $2 +$9 +437%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$7 +223%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$13 +626%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 9m
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 12m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 31¢ $6 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 31¢ $1 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 19¢ $5 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $14 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 6h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 37¢ $10 6h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 21¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.90 · official $11.90 (match) · 923 history records