Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:41:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1B
0x1bc0…a610
crypto · 61 markets active 4h ago
4.0score
+$3 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$6 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$6
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses32 / 28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)60 / 61
History coverage53d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 60 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-92%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2AM ET Up 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7AM ET May 17 $1 $0 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET May 13 $1 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET May 13 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET May 13 $1 $0 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET May 13 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET May 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET May 12 $1 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET May 12 $1 $0 -48%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 12 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET May 12 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET May 12 $1 +$1 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET May 08 $3 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 7? May 07 $1 −$1 -75%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 07 $1 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 7? May 07 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Apr 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Apr 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Apr 23 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Apr 23 $1 +$1 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Apr 23 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Apr 23 $1 +$1 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Apr 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Apr 23 $1 +$3 +264%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Apr 22 $1 +$7 +742%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Apr 22 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Apr 22 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on April 21? Apr 21 $1 $0 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Apr 21 $1 +$1 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Apr 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Apr 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Apr 21 $1 −$1 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Apr 21 $1 $0 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Apr 21 $1 +$1 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Apr 21 $1 +$1 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Apr 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Apr 21 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Apr 21 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Apr 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Apr 21 $1 −$1 -52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 87% +$6
economics 12% −$3
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7AM ET SELL Up 12¢ $1 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $0 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 0¢ $0 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $2 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $2 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $2 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $1 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $1 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $2 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +10.7% +0.2% 50% 50% +0.7%
≤30d 7 +4.4% -5.5% 43% 43% -5.2%
≤90d 60 +9.5% -0.9% 53% 48% -1.9%
all 60 +9.5% -0.9% 53% 48% -1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.9% 48% -1.9%
10% -10.4% 43% -11.3%
15% -19.0% 37% -19.9%
20% -27.0% 30% -27.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.24 · official $0.24 (match) · 123 history records