Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:45:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
1B 0x1bc3…4bdc other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$142 (+33%) realized +$161 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +60% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +39% what you keep after slip
Net edge+39%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% −$28
other 37% +$103
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+44.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +60.1% +44.8% 62% 50% +15.1%
≤30d 8 +60.1% +44.8% 62% 50% +15.1%
≤90d 8 +60.1% +44.8% 62% 50% +15.1%
all 8 +60.1% +44.8% 62% 50% +15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +44.8% 50% +15.1%
10% +31.0% 50% +4.1%
15% +18.3% 50% -6.0%
20% +6.7% 50% -15.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +60% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$25 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.26 per $1 lost it wins $2.26
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized+$161
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions4
Markets (closed)8 / 12
History coverage5d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Over 22¢ 22¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Over 30¢ 30¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Over 25¢ 20¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-22%)
Brian Brobbey: 4+ shots Yes 31¢ 13¢ $25 $10 −$15 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $192 −$45 -23%
Achraf Hakimi: 4+ shots Jun 25 $33 +$1 +4%
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals Jun 25 $20 +$22 +109%
Achraf Hakimi: 1+ assists Jun 25 $26 +$82 +321%
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 24 $15 −$15 -98%
Brahim Díaz: 1+ assists Jun 24 $15 −$15 -98%
Switzerland to score first vs. Canada? Jun 24 $20 +$21 +105%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $25 +$42 +165%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 30¢ $20 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 22¢ $20 1h
Brian Brobbey: 4+ shots BUY Yes 31¢ $26 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Over 25¢ $20 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Germany 58¢ $148 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 74¢ $192 2h
Achraf Hakimi: 4+ shots SELL Yes 35¢ $34 5d
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $43 5d
Achraf Hakimi: 1+ assists SELL Yes 99¢ $108 5d
Achraf Hakimi: 4+ shots BUY Yes 32¢ $33 5d
Achraf Hakimi: 1+ assists BUY Yes 23¢ $15 5d
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals BUY Yes 47¢ $20 5d
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 5d
Achraf Hakimi: 1+ assists BUY Yes 23¢ $10 5d
Brahim Díaz: 1+ assists BUY Yes 31¢ $15 5d
Switzerland to score first vs. Canada? SELL Yes 100¢ $42 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $67 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 37¢ $15 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 5d
Switzerland to score first vs. Canada? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.20 · official $66.21 (match) · 20 history records