Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:23:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1bc7…9ab3 crypto 59 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$536 (-12%) realized −$536 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate53%31W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$247
7 days−$248
14 days−$874
30 days−$755
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$550
other 11% −$204
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -35.8% -42.0% 44% 22% -34.1%
≤30d 59 +26.5% +14.4% 53% 44% -25.8%
≤90d 59 +26.5% +14.4% 53% 44% -25.8%
all 59 +26.5% +14.4% 53% 44% -25.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.4% 44% -25.8%
10% +3.5% 37% -32.9%
15% -6.5% 31% -39.4%
20% -15.7% 25% -45.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +83% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$64 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$536
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses31 / 28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)59 / 59
History coverage19d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 59 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1PM ET Jun 17 $114 −$114 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 17 $113 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $398 −$119 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $202 +$23 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $29 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $8 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$3 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 08 $284 −$284 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 08 $213 +$71 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 08 $192 +$21 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 07 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 07 $24 +$10 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 07 $19 +$5 +26%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 06 $95 −$79 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 06 $39 +$40 +101%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 06 $20 +$10 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 06 $132 −$114 -86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 06 $85 −$84 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 06 $374 −$374 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 06 $219 −$110 -50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 06 $101 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 06 $350 +$130 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 06 $296 +$160 +54%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 06 $167 +$80 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 05 $8 −$8 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 4, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 04 $3 −$3 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$1 -28%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 4, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 04 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$3 -59%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 04 $3 +$2 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 04 $2 +$3 +122%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 4? Jun 04 $1 $0 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 3, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 03 $59 −$47 -80%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 3, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 03 $14 +$33 +234%
BNB Up or Down - June 3, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 03 $8 +$6 +75%
BNB Up or Down - June 3, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 03 $5 +$3 +64%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 03 $53 −$53 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 3, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 03 $205 −$205 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 03 $99 +$133 +133%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 3, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 03 $83 +$20 +24%
BNB Up or Down - June 3, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 03 $97 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 03 $56 +$41 +72%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 3, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 03 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $114 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $114 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $113 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $113 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $167 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $166 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $232 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $226 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $202 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $30 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $30 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $29 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $9 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $9 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $284 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $284 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $213 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $192 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $34 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $34 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $24 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $19 10d
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $16 10d
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 14¢ $16 10d
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $79 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $79 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $39 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 137 history records