Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:13:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1bc8…2f68 sports 349 markets active 2h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$53,386 (-6%) realized −$53,047 · open −$339
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%133W / 213L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,457per market
Trades / day18.7pace
Fees−$4,636est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$15,308now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,435
7 days−$9,408
14 days−$9,970
30 days−$22,302
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$13,107
sports 40% −$31,502
world 1% −$10,770
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -47.7% -52.7% 29% 29% -32.7%
≤30d 30 -33.0% -39.4% 30% 30% -42.6%
≤90d 236 -10.7% -19.2% 38% 38% -17.2%
all 346 -6.9% -15.7% 38% 38% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.7 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.7% 38% -15.5%
10% ← realistic here -23.8% 38% -23.5%
15% -31.2% 38% -30.9%
20% -37.9% 35% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$3,041) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3,047 vs −$2,161 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$15,308
Realized−$53,047
Unrealized−$339
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses133 / 213
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$4,636
Open positions3
Markets (closed)346 / 349
History coverage135d
Avg bet$2,457
Trades / day18.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 346 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score No 49¢ 48¢ $13,607 $13,265 −$342 (-3%)
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Under 36¢ 38¢ $1,150 $1,198 +$48 (+4%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Under 30¢ 28¢ $891 $846 −$45 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 198 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $4,081 −$4,082 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 Jun 18 $1,704 +$2,021 +119%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $8,315 +$8,030 +97%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2,450 −$2,450 -100%
Spread: New York Liberty (-10.5) Jun 17 $1,869 −$1,840 -98%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,189 −$1,167 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $3,321 +$1,922 +58%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,978 −$1,978 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $1,238 +$736 +60%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $1,837 −$1,808 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $1,985 −$1,985 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $2,139 −$2,108 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3,319 −$3,319 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 11 $1,381 −$1,381 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 11 $1,606 −$1,579 -98%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 11 $1,997 −$1,967 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5 Jun 09 $2,468 +$3,703 +150%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) Jun 08 $12 −$11 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $715 −$708 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5 Jun 04 $1,309 −$1,280 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 04 $2,036 −$2,036 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca Jun 01 $340 +$605 +178%
Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $1,729 +$1,677 +97%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Raphael Collignon May 30 $239 +$493 +206%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $2,684 −$2,661 -99%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 27 $1,263 −$1,241 -98%
Eliot Spizzirri vs. Frances Tiafoe: Total Sets O/U 3.5 May 25 $95 +$139 +146%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $2,281 −$2,281 -100%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1,743 −$1,714 -98%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $4,033 −$4,033 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $6,524 +$10,204 +156%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $4,777 +$5,176 +108%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1,292 +$3,298 +255%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $9,142 +$10,309 +113%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $4,549 −$4,548 -100%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $9,334 −$9,334 -100%
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $1,423 −$83 -6%
Will Celtic FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $1,324 −$1,300 -98%
Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club win on 2026-05-15? May 16 $1,374 +$2,001 +146%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $36,113 +$22,591 +63%
Will Girona FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol end in a draw? May 14 $279 +$771 +276%
Will Valencia CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? May 14 $957 +$1,974 +206%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $275 −$269 -98%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $450 −$440 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 14 $1,774 −$1,745 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 14 $1,774 −$1,745 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 14 $3,547 −$3,491 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 May 13 $1,738 +$1,979 +114%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $12,736 +$12,016 +94%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $2,662 −$2,649 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 48¢ $1,852 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 48¢ $1,029 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 48¢ $5 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 48¢ $14 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 48¢ $323 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 48¢ $9 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 48¢ $1 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 48¢ $28 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 48¢ $182 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 48¢ $41 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 48¢ $12 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 48¢ $37 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 48¢ $18 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 48¢ $1 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 48¢ $14 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 48¢ $6 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 48¢ $111 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 48¢ $4 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $2,091 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 36¢ $1,172 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 30¢ $909 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $1,990 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $2,000 2h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $1,981 2h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $2,010 2h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY No 50¢ $323 7h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY No 50¢ $1 7h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY No 50¢ $20 7h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY No 50¢ $2 7h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY No 50¢ $2 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15,308.43 · official $15,308.73 (match) · 2697 history records