Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:23:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
1B 0x1bc8…197a crypto 385 markets active 2h ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$234 (+1%) realized +$202 · open +$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate76%289W / 90L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day11.8pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$912now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$33
7 days+$67
14 days+$84
30 days+$84
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% −$316
tech 9% +$199
world 7% +$191
politics 5% +$108
sports 5% +$54
finance 4% +$77
other 4% −$173
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +4.8% -5.2% 87% 43% -5.8%
≤30d 52 +1.8% -7.9% 79% 50% -6.4%
≤90d 379 -5.8% -14.8% 76% 27% -9.1%
all 379 -5.8% -14.8% 76% 27% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 27% -9.1%
10% -22.9% 14% -17.8%
15% -30.4% 7% -25.8%
20% -37.2% 5% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$19 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$912
Realized+$202
Unrealized+$32
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses289 / 90
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions6
Markets (closed)379 / 385
History coverage83d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day11.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 379 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? No 89¢ 92¢ $200 $206 +$6 (+3%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? No 87¢ 87¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 91¢ 88¢ $200 $195 −$5 (-3%)
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 54¢ 74¢ $80 $112 +$31 (+39%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? No 93¢ 97¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 46¢ 44¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 20 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 20 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 20 $50 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 20 $25 +$1 +3%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 20 $257 +$15 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 20 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 20 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 18 $41 +$45 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $110 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $533 +$124 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$4 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$3 +29%
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 13 $6 +$4 +73%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $9 −$7 -72%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 12 $183 +$15 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $25 +$1 +4%
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)? Jun 10 $48 +$2 +4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 10 $41 +$5 +12%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 10 $171 +$19 +11%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? May 31 $10 −$10 -96%
Internet Access restored in Iran by December 31, 2026? May 29 $76 +$24 +32%
Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31? May 27 $1 −$1 -82%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 25 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 25 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 24 $3 −$2 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 24 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 24 $13 +$3 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 24 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 23 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET May 22 $1 +$1 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 22 $2 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 22 $4 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 22 $20 +$3 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 2h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 87¢ $201 2h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 98¢ $272 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 86¢ $86 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $29 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $25 3d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? BUY No 86¢ $101 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $110 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? BUY No 93¢ $100 5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? BUY No 93¢ $100 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $100 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $912.17 · official $912.17 (match) · 1103 history records