Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:20:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

1B 0x1bc9…1bdc world 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real

Total PnL +$14 (+10%) realized +$7 · open +$7

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip

Net edge+5%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%1W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$45per market

Trades / day1.9pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$95now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+5.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+16.4%	+5.3%	100%	100%	+5.3%
≤30d	1	+16.4%	+5.3%	100%	100%	+5.3%
≤90d	1	+16.4%	+5.3%	100%	100%	+5.3%
all	1	+16.4%	+5.3%	100%	100%	+5.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.9 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+5.3%	100%	+5.3%
10%	-4.7%	0%	-4.7%
15%	-13.9%	0%	-13.9%
20%	-22.4%	0%	-22.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +16% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +16% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$8 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$95

Realized+$7

Unrealized+$7

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses1 / 0

Open positions2

Markets (closed)1 / 3

History coverage2d

Avg bet$45

Trades / day1.9

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31?	No	28¢	30¢	$55	$59	+$4 (+7%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	15¢	16¢	$32	$35	+$3 (+10%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election	Jun 21	$47	+$8	+16%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31?	BUY No	28¢	$55	1h
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election	SELL Yes	42¢	$55	3h
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election	BUY Yes	34¢	$47	2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	BUY Yes	15¢	$32	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94.62 · official $94.62 (match) · 4 history records