Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:37:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1bcc…45ad crypto 80 markets active 2h ago coverage 251d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate96%76W / 3L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$13
sports 1% +$2
other 1% −$29
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 11 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 79 -0.7% -10.2% 96% 10% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 10% -9.7%
10% -18.8% 4% -18.4%
15% -26.6% 3% -26.3%
20% -33.8% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$10 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

251d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses76 / 3
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)79 / 80
History coverage251d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 20? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $28 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 21? May 21 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 13? May 13 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 3? May 03 $28 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 24? May 03 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on April 16? Apr 23 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 7? Apr 15 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 30? Apr 06 $28 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on March 23? Mar 29 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 13? Mar 22 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 4? Mar 12 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on February 24? Mar 03 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on February 16? Feb 24 $28 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 8? Feb 16 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on February 1? Feb 08 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 25? Feb 01 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on January 18? Jan 24 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 11? Jan 17 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 4? Jan 10 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 28? Jan 03 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on December 22? Dec 28 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on December 15? Dec 22 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 8? Dec 15 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on November 30? Dec 08 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on November 24? Nov 30 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 23? Nov 24 $577 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 22? Nov 23 $575 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on November 21? Nov 22 $571 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on November 20? Nov 21 $571 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on November 19? Nov 20 $570 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on November 18? Nov 19 $570 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on November 17? Nov 18 $258 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on November 17? Nov 18 $310 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on November 16? Nov 17 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on November 16? Nov 17 $285 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,800 on November 12? Nov 16 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on November 10? Nov 12 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,700 on November 8? Nov 10 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $108,000 on November 7? Nov 08 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $110,000 on November 6? Nov 07 $23 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $110,000 on November 5? Nov 06 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on November 4? Nov 05 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,400 on November 3? Nov 04 $23 $0 +0%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 03 $22 +$1 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 1? Nov 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $210 on October 31? Nov 01 $22 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,400 on October 30? Oct 31 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on October 29? Oct 30 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $3.00 on October 28? Oct 29 $21 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $29 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? BUY No 99¢ $28 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $28 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $28 30d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 13? BUY No 100¢ $28 37d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 3? BUY No 99¢ $28 47d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $28 57d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on April 16? BUY No 100¢ $28 65d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 7? BUY No 100¢ $28 73d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 30? BUY No 99¢ $28 82d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on March 23? BUY No 100¢ $28 89d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $28 98d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 4? BUY No 100¢ $28 108d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on February 24? BUY No 100¢ $28 115d
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on February 16? BUY No 99¢ $28 123d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 8? BUY No 100¢ $27 131d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on February 1? BUY No 100¢ $27 138d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 25? BUY No 100¢ $27 146d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on January 18? BUY No 100¢ $27 152d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 11? BUY No 100¢ $27 159d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $27 166d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 28? BUY No 100¢ $27 173d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on December 22? BUY No 100¢ $27 179d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on December 15? BUY No 100¢ $27 186d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $27 193d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on November 30? BUY No 100¢ $27 201d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on November 24? BUY No 100¢ $27 207d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 23? BUY No 100¢ $577 208d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 22? BUY No 100¢ $575 209d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on November 21? BUY No 99¢ $571 210d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.73 · official $28.73 (match) · 161 history records