Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:59:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1bcd…60c7 other 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$440 (-20%) realized −$441 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%22W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day21.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% −$411
sports 11% −$62
crypto 3% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-30.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -22.9% -30.2% 43% 43% -26.2%
≤30d 51 -22.9% -30.2% 43% 43% -26.2%
≤90d 51 -22.9% -30.2% 43% 43% -26.2%
all 51 -22.9% -30.2% 43% 43% -26.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.2% 43% -26.2%
10% ← realistic here -36.9% 31% -33.3%
15% -43.0% 24% -39.7%
20% -48.6% 20% -45.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$32 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$441
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses22 / 29
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage6d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day21.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: France (-2.5) France 56¢ 58¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $50 +$13 +26%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $46 −$24 -53%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$4 +20%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $15 +$10 +63%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $15 −$9 -62%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $254 −$101 -40%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $102 −$50 -49%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$1 -27%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$9 -88%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $56 +$22 +40%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$12 +114%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$35 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $30 +$17 +57%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $2 −$1 -52%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $111 +$32 +29%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 −$18 -89%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 +$4 +22%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $55 +$8 +15%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 +$3 +249%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$8 -79%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$6 +28%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 −$4 -86%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 −$5 -23%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $41 −$16 -39%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 $0 +7%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $86 +$14 +17%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 +$2 +9%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $100 +$11 +11%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $504 −$500 -99%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 +$3 +265%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$17 +55%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +133%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $203 +$192 +95%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$11 +35%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 +$48 +95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 56¢ $20 48m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $63 57m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 82¢ $40 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 99¢ $4 17h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 18h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 21¢ $4 18h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 18h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 20¢ $4 18h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 21¢ $5 18h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 24¢ $4 18h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 40¢ $41 18h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $40 18h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 24h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 32¢ $10 27h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 83¢ $20 39h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 39h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $25 42h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 42h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 42h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 60¢ $15 42h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 38¢ $5 42h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 42h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 59¢ $15 42h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 46h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 13¢ $10 46h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 12¢ $37 46h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 46h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $1 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.89 · official $20.89 (match) · 131 history records