Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:48:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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1B 0x1bce…24cd weather 290 markets active 2h ago coverage 49d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 48d only
✗ bot/MM pace (66 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$729 (+1%) realized +$767 · open −$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate70%197W / 85L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$171per market
Trades / day66.4pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$1,780now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$81
7 days+$196
14 days+$966
30 days+$1,333
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 98% +$934
other 2% −$164
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (66 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -6.8% -15.7% 68% 18% -7.3%
≤30d 142 -5.4% -14.4% 71% 27% -5.6%
≤90d 282 -3.2% -12.4% 70% 27% -8.0%
all 282 -3.2% -12.4% 70% 27% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover66.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.4% 27% -8.0%
10% ← realistic here -20.8% 18% -16.8%
15% -28.4% 14% -24.8%
20% -35.5% 10% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$34 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$1,780
Realized+$767
Unrealized−$38
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses197 / 85
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Open positions8
Markets (closed)282 / 290
History coverage49d ⚠
Avg bet$171
Trades / day66.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 282 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 19? No 95¢ 91¢ $790 $757 −$32 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 18? No 92¢ 100¢ $676 $737 +$62 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 19? No 89¢ 78¢ $264 $229 −$35 (-13%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $42 $33 −$9 (-21%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 38¢ 61¢ $12 $20 +$7 (+60%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 18? No 42¢ 6¢ $11 $1 −$10 (-87%)
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 19¢ 2¢ $9 $1 −$8 (-89%)
Will Claude Code Commits be less than 500.0k on June 30? Yes 21¢ 1¢ $15 $1 −$14 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $707 +$51 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $148 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? Jun 17 $166 −$152 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16? Jun 17 $17 −$8 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? Jun 17 $71 −$15 -22%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 16? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $555 +$48 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $49 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $74 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $13 +$17 +138%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $627 +$39 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $84 +$9 +10%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $102 −$38 -38%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? Jun 15 $395 +$11 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? Jun 15 $68 +$15 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $202 +$79 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $368 +$14 +4%
Will Claude Code Commits hit (LOW) 350.0k by June 30? Jun 14 $52 −$2 -4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $47 −$47 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $410 +$25 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1,424 +$87 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $226 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $72 −$21 -30%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $101 −$33 -33%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $97 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 +$19 +64%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $63 +$7 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $28 −$27 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $240 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $600 +$63 +10%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $19 +$17 +87%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1,045 +$30 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $65 +$8 +13%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $158 +$12 +8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $26 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $15 +$6 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 10? Jun 11 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $541 +$11 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 9? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 9? Jun 10 $0 $0 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 9? Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $106 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 9? Jun 09 $402 +$172 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 9? Jun 09 $987 +$22 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 8? Jun 09 $5 −$2 -35%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 8? Jun 08 $207 +$115 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1,045 +$65 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 7? Jun 08 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 18? BUY No 25¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 18? BUY No 53¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 18? BUY No 52¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 18? BUY No 91¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 18? BUY No 91¢ $9 5h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 18? BUY No 91¢ $9 5h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 18? BUY No 91¢ $9 5h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 18? BUY No 91¢ $9 5h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 18? BUY No 91¢ $9 5h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 18? BUY No 92¢ $9 5h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 18? BUY No 92¢ $9 5h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 18? BUY No 92¢ $9 5h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 18? BUY No 92¢ $9 5h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 18? BUY No 92¢ $7 5h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 18? BUY No 92¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 18? BUY No 92¢ $9 5h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 18? BUY No 93¢ $29 5h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 18? SELL No 90¢ $6 5h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 18? SELL No 90¢ $6 5h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 18? SELL No 90¢ $6 5h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 18? SELL No 90¢ $6 5h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 18? SELL No 90¢ $6 5h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 18? SELL No 90¢ $6 5h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 18? SELL No 90¢ $6 5h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 18? SELL No 90¢ $6 5h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 18? SELL No 90¢ $6 5h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 18? SELL No 90¢ $6 5h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 18? SELL No 90¢ $6 5h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 18? SELL No 90¢ $6 5h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 18? SELL No 90¢ $6 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,780.40 · official $1,779.98 (match) · 3500 history records