Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:17:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1bd1…a540 crypto 468 markets active 3h ago coverage 7d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (171 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$538 (-5%) realized −$538 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate77%361W / 107L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day171.0pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$336
other 7% −$236
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (171 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 468 -3.9% -13.1% 77% 27% -14.0%
≤30d 468 -3.9% -13.1% 77% 27% -14.0%
≤90d 468 -3.9% -13.1% 77% 27% -14.0%
all 468 -3.9% -13.1% 77% 27% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover171.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.1% 27% -14.0%
10% ← realistic here -21.4% 26% -22.3%
15% -29.0% 26% -29.8%
20% -35.9% 25% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$23 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$538
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses361 / 107
Open positions0
Markets (closed)468 / 468
History coverage7d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day171.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 468 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 18 $19 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 18 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 18 $19 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 18 $28 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 18 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $19 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 18 $8 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 18 $8 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 18 $27 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 18 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 18 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 18 $6 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 18 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 18 $6 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +6%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $14 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $23 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $23 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $7 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 4h
BNB Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $7 4h
BNB Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 4h
BNB Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 4h
BNB Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $8 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $8 4h
BNB Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $6 4h
BNB Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $6 4h
BNB Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $8 4h
BNB Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $8 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $8 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $6 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 13h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1799 history records