Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:49:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
1B 0x1bd3…258f other 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this
Total PnL +$755 (+14%) realized +$774 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +51% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +32% what you keep after slip
Net edge+32%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%17W / 17L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$141per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$381now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$413
7 days+$506
14 days+$723
30 days+$723
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% +$336
sports 23% +$368
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+36.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +61.1% +45.7% 48% 48% +3.3%
≤30d 34 +51.3% +36.9% 50% 50% +6.3%
≤90d 34 +51.3% +36.9% 50% 50% +6.3%
all 34 +51.3% +36.9% 50% 50% +6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +36.9% 50% +6.3%
10% +23.8% 50% -3.9%
15% +11.8% 50% -13.2%
20% +0.9% 38% -21.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +51% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +68% → late +35% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$131 vs −$89 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$381
Realized+$774
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses17 / 17
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions4
Markets (closed)34 / 38
History coverage10d
Avg bet$141
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $100 $83 −$17 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $102 −$9 -9%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$60 +60%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $51 +$421 +821%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 −$63 -63%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$22 +73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$31 +62%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $81 +$89 +109%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$58 +57%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $609 −$600 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $204 +$284 +140%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $202 +$80 +40%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $730 −$367 -50%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$3 -3%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 +$200 +650%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 −$67 -66%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $716 +$298 +42%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $319 +$153 +48%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 +$106 +344%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 +$106 +344%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 +$116 +114%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$55 +54%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$54 -53%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$107 +105%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 −$19 -92%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $41 −$31 -77%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $100 +$43 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 66¢ $195 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 67¢ $195 1h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $202 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $93 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $202 2h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 2h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 11h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $31 12h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 25¢ $38 12h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 26h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 26h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 26h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $20 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $61 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 2d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $609 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 52¢ $348 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $558 3d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 71¢ $202 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $204 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $381.27 · official $381.27 (match) · 73 history records