Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:27:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
1B 0x1bd4…4f29 crypto 90 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$41 (+2%) realized +$41 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR74%break-even
Win rate79%71W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day29.8pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$9
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +74%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 90 +1.9% -7.8% 79% 74% -9.2%
≤30d 90 +1.9% -7.8% 79% 74% -9.2%
≤90d 90 +1.9% -7.8% 79% 74% -9.2%
all 90 +1.9% -7.8% 79% 74% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.8% 74% -9.2%
10% ← realistic here -16.7% 39% -17.9%
15% -24.7% 16% -25.8%
20% -32.1% 7% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$27 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$41
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses71 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)90 / 90
History coverage3d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day29.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 90 Trades
no open positions (18 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$14 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$10 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$8 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$9 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$8 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$8 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$8 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$17 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$29 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$9 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$7 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$13 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $31 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $30 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $30 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $30 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $31 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $30 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $30 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $31 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $30 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $30 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $31 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $30 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $30 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $30 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $30 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $31 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $31 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $30 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $30 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $30 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $30 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $30 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $30 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $31 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 162 history records