Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:32:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1B 0x1bd8…ca71 sports 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 178d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$196 (+16%) realized +$197 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate81%17W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$188now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$48
14 days+$48
30 days+$333
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% +$187
other 11% +$25
world 2% −$24
politics 1% $0
economics 1% $0
weather 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +57.0% +42.0% 100% 100% +42.0%
≤30d 4 +56.8% +41.9% 75% 75% +63.9%
≤90d 15 +11.9% +1.2% 80% 53% +11.0%
all 21 +3.8% -6.1% 81% 38% +6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 38% +6.7%
10% -15.1% 29% -3.5%
15% -23.3% 24% -12.8%
20% -30.8% 14% -21.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 72% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$74 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.64 per $1 lost it wins $1.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$188
Realized+$197
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses17 / 4
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)21 / 22
History coverage178d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 Over 71¢ 70¢ $189 $188 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $84 +$48 +57%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $131 +$137 +105%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $130 +$214 +165%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 28 $67 −$66 -99%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 20 $74 +$28 +38%
Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets May 14 $174 −$171 -98%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? May 14 $10 +$1 +12%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in Febru May 14 $14 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee May 14 $16 $0 +0%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by February 28? May 14 $17 $0 +0%
2026 U.S. House Election: Republican Odds over 50% by March 31? May 14 $17 $0 +2%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs May 14 $49 +$9 +18%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers May 14 $48 +$23 +48%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 14 $78 +$25 +32%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 29 $36 −$35 -99%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 10 $24 −$24 -100%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 04 $12 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $0.00 end of January? Feb 04 $20 $0 +0%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $170 end of January? Feb 04 $25 $0 +1%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for January 5 - January 11 be Jan 29 $18 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in December? Jan 10 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $191 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 63¢ $84 9d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Texas Rangers 48¢ $131 15d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $130 23d
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 62¢ $67 29d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY KT Rolster 72¢ $74 37d
Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets BUY Detroit Tigers 40¢ $174 43d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $78 49d
Celtics vs. 76ers BUY Celtics 67¢ $36 58d
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers BUY Spurs 67¢ $48 61d
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 84¢ $49 68d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? BUY No 89¢ $10 94d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY Yes 100¢ $16 101d
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in Febru BUY No 100¢ $14 107d
2026 U.S. House Election: Republican Odds over 50% by March 31? BUY No 98¢ $17 113d
New "Stranger Things" episode released by February 28? BUY No 100¢ $17 121d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY No 94¢ $24 135d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 148d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $0.00 end of January? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 156d
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $170 end of January? BUY Yes 99¢ $25 161d
Will the total number of TSA passengers for January 5 - January 11 be BUY No 100¢ $18 167d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in December? BUY No 100¢ $14 178d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $187.71 · official $187.71 (match) · 39 history records