Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:41:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
1B 0x1bd8…e5f8 other 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 594d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL −$264 (-12%) realized −$213 · open −$51
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +148% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +124% what you keep after slip
Net edge+124%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$142per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$126
7 days+$205
14 days+$205
30 days+$205
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% −$496
politics 28% +$406
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+124.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +214.0% +184.1% 60% 60% +109.9%
≤30d 5 +214.0% +184.1% 60% 60% +109.9%
≤90d 5 +214.0% +184.1% 60% 60% +109.9%
all 7 +147.6% +124.0% 57% 57% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +124.0% 57% -8.4%
10% +102.6% 57% -17.2%
15% +83.0% 43% -25.2%
20% +65.1% 43% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +113% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +148% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$178 vs −$250 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

594d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$213
Unrealized−$51
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)7 / 16
History coverage594d
Avg bet$142
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-98%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? No 10¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $21 +$226 +1101%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $102 −$90 -88%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 +$15 +29%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $46 +$64 +140%
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? Nov 15 $940 −$650 -69%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $644 +$406 +63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 10¢ $26 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 3¢ $27 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-2 BUY 28¢ $54 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY 4¢ $46 5h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-2 BUY 12¢ $47 8h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY 1¢ $5 18h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 19h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 9¢ $10 19h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY 8¢ $21 20h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Curaçao win on 2026-06- BUY 4¢ $21 20h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06- BUY 8¢ $51 20h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 20h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? AND BUY 7¢ $178 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $46 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 3d
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? SELL Yes 29¢ $290 583d
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? BUY Yes 34¢ $340 583d
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? BUY Yes 30¢ $600 584d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,050 592d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 61¢ $347 592d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 63¢ $198 593d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 58¢ $98 593d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.58 · official $144.08 · 25 history records