Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:32:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
1B 0x1bda…4256 other 44 markets active 0h ago coverage 459d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate43%19W / 25L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$2
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% $0
other 26% +$3
politics 9% +$1
tech 7% $0
crypto 4% $0
culture 4% $0
economics 4% +$1
finance 3% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 13 +13.7% +2.9% 23% 8% -9.5%
≤90d 13 +13.7% +2.9% 23% 8% -9.5%
all 44 +0.2% -9.4% 43% 7% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 7% -9.0%
10% -18.0% 2% -17.7%
15% -25.9% 2% -25.6%
20% -33.2% 2% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.27 per $1 lost it wins $2.27
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

459d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses19 / 25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)44 / 44
History coverage459d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 44 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $44 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $11 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $8 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $7 $0 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $39 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $46 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $8 $0 -3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $15 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $16 $0 -3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $17 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $42 −$1 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $46 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $1 +$2 +186%
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $2 $0 +2%
Will Grigor Dimitrov win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Jalen Brunson Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 45.0% and 45.4% on June 6? Jun 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will GPT-5 be released by December 31? Jun 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec Jun 04 $14 $0 +3%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? May 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will Esteban Ocon finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? May 19 $15 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the UEFA Europa League? May 18 $13 $0 +2%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 18 $27 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? May 17 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? May 17 $15 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 13 $15 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on May 31? May 12 $15 $0 -0%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority? May 11 $14 $0 -2%
Will the Alliance for a Great Albania win the most seats in the next A May 10 $1 $0 +20%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 10 $13 +$2 +14%
Will egg prices be less than $4.75 in April? May 10 $16 $0 -0%
Will Celtics vs. Warriors be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 09 $1 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting? May 08 $13 +$1 +4%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the Hart Trophy? Apr 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? Apr 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? Apr 04 $14 $0 -3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by March 31? Apr 03 $2 $0 -25%
Will Walmart buy TikTok? Apr 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? Apr 02 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 31 $14 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum hit $2,600.00 again by March 31? Mar 28 $14 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78000 and $80000 on Mar 28? Mar 27 $14 $0 +2%
Will George Russell win the 2025 China Grand Prix? Mar 24 $12 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $44 16m
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $44 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $10 12h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 12h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $11 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 11¢ $8 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 11¢ $4 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 11¢ $1 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 11¢ $3 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $2 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $39 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $39 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 82¢ $16 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 82¢ $16 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $24 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $5 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $29 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $8 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $8 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $5 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $5 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $15 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $15 10d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 36¢ $15 12d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 12d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 37¢ $12 12d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 12d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $15 12d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 147 history records