Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:56:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
1B 0x1bdf…f939 sports 226 markets active 1h ago coverage 185d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$239 (-6%) realized −$236 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate61%137W / 87L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$192now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$144
7 days+$118
14 days+$118
30 days+$111
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$8
other 32% −$127
world 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +26.7% +14.6% 72% 72% +8.9%
≤30d 23 +21.0% +9.5% 70% 70% +6.0%
≤90d 66 +13.2% +2.4% 65% 65% -8.9%
all 224 +1.2% -8.4% 61% 55% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 55% -11.2%
10% -17.2% 42% -19.7%
15% -25.2% 28% -27.4%
20% -32.5% 17% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$11 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

185d coverage
Net worth$192
Realized−$236
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses137 / 87
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions2
Markets (closed)224 / 226
History coverage185d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 224 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5 Under 71¢ 70¢ $170 $168 −$2 (-1%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Under 59¢ 56¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $50 +$21 +41%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $56 +$26 +46%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $25 −$25 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 AND Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams Jun 21 $30 +$21 +69%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $32 +$18 +55%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score AND Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U Jun 21 $25 +$25 +99%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $41 +$39 +97%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $50 +$22 +44%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 AND Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $30 +$20 +66%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $27 +$17 +62%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $53 −$53 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $23 +$16 +70%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $30 −$4 -12%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 AND Will United States win on 202 Jun 19 $20 +$18 +89%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $3 +$2 +59%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 AND United States v Jun 19 $31 −$20 -65%
Raúl Jiménez: 2+ shots Jun 19 $10 +$3 +29%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score AND Will Mexico win on Jun 19 $41 −$29 -71%
Germany vs. Finland: Both Teams to Score May 31 $10 −$10 -98%
Switzerland vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 May 31 $22 −$12 -56%
Japan vs. Iceland: O/U 2.5 May 31 $18 +$4 +23%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $10 +$5 +46%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $7 +$6 +89%
Al Ittihad Saudi Club vs. Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club: Both Teams to Score May 21 $5 +$2 +46%
SE Palmeiras vs. Club Cerro Porteño: Both Teams to Score May 20 $25 −$25 -98%
Club Nacional de Football vs. Club Universitario de Deportes: Both Tea May 20 $61 −$30 -50%
CR Flamengo vs. Estudiantes de La Plata: Both Teams to Score May 20 $8 −$8 -98%
SE Palmeiras vs. Club Cerro Porteño: O/U 1.5 May 20 $60 −$60 -99%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $30 +$20 +66%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5 May 20 $30 +$10 +34%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score May 20 $30 −$12 -39%
Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $7 +$4 +57%
Independiente Santa Fe vs. CA Platense: O/U 1.5 May 20 $25 +$15 +60%
CA Boca Juniors vs. Cruzeiro EC: Both Teams to Score May 20 $25 +$34 +134%
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 3.5 May 19 $25 +$8 +32%
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 4.5 May 19 $50 −$1 -2%
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 2.5 May 19 $60 −$59 -99%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5 May 19 $42 +$17 +40%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 3.5 May 18 $29 +$13 +46%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 4.5 May 18 $26 +$3 +11%
CA Paranaense vs. CR Flamengo: Both Teams to Score May 18 $13 +$13 +101%
OGC Nice vs. FC Metz: O/U 2.5 May 17 $9 +$4 +39%
Ousmane Dembele: Anytime Goalscorer May 17 $22 −$22 -99%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Girona FC: O/U 2.5 May 17 $17 +$5 +27%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Girona FC: Both Teams to Score May 17 $35 −$18 -52%
Atalanta BC vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 3.5 May 17 $26 +$10 +36%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $28 −$2 -6%
Leeds United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 2.5 May 17 $24 +$4 +16%
FC Internazionale Milano vs. Hellas Verona FC: O/U 2.5 May 17 $19 +$5 +26%
SC Heerenveen vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 1.5 May 17 $14 +$5 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5 BUY Under 71¢ $154 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $71 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $82 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes $0 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 2.5 BUY Under 68¢ $56 3h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5 BUY Under 76¢ $18 12h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $25 12h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 70¢ $50 12h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $25 13h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 AND Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams BUY 58¢ $30 13h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score AND Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U BUY 50¢ $25 22h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 64¢ $32 25h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY 50¢ $41 26h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 BUY Over 69¢ $50 36h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 AND Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score SELL 99¢ $51 44h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $53 45h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 AND Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY 58¢ $30 46h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $40 46h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $44 46h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $27 47h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 42¢ $27 47h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $23 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $30 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 AND Will United States win on 202 SELL 99¢ $38 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 98¢ $5 2d
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 AND United States v SELL 15¢ $11 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $3 2d
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 AND United States v BUY 40¢ $31 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score AND Will Mexico win on SELL $12 2d
Raúl Jiménez: 2+ shots BUY Yes 77¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $191.90 · official $191.91 (match) · 484 history records