Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:40:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
1B 0x1be2…5bf2 crypto 759 markets active 1h ago coverage 65d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 64d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$293 (-2%) realized −$293 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate97%733W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day12.2pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$29
14 days−$37
30 days−$84
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$208
other 8% −$56
finance 6% −$16
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 96 -0.5% -9.9% 98% 0% -10.8%
≤30d 377 -1.5% -10.9% 97% 0% -10.6%
≤90d 759 -1.3% -10.7% 97% 0% -11.2%
all 759 -1.3% -10.7% 97% 0% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 0% -11.2%
10% -19.2% 0% -19.7%
15% -27.0% 0% -27.4%
20% -34.2% 0% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$23 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$293
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses733 / 26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)759 / 759
History coverage65d ⚠
Avg bet$20
Trades / day12.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 759 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8AM ET Jun 20 $35 +$2 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $49 +$1 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $50 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 20 $12 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 20 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 20 $18 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $12 $0 +3%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 20 $12 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 20 $11 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 20 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 20 $18 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 20 $4 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 20 $18 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 20 $18 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 20 $18 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 20 $26 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 19 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 19 $18 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 19 $18 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 19 $17 +$1 +3%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 19 $4 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 19 $18 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 19 $18 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 19? Jun 19 $30 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10AM ET Jun 19 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7AM ET Jun 19 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 19 $12 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 19 $8 $0 +3%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 18 $6 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $18 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $30 $0 +2%
BNB Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $49 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $49 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $18 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $18 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $18 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $18 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $18 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $18 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $18 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $18 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $18 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $35 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $49 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $12 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $12 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $18 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $12 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $12 5h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $12 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $11 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $18 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $18 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $18 9h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $18 12h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $18 13h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $26 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $18 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $18 16h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $18 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $17 16h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $18 17h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $4 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $18 20h
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $30 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $50 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $12 27h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $3 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.28 · official $0.00 · 3500 history records