Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T19:05:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
1B 0x1be2…49e8 other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 15d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,586 (-31%) realized −$1,515 · open −$71
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -53% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -59% what you keep after slip
Net edge-59%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,009per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$1,029now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 15d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% −$1,642
sports 2% −$70
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-57.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -37.3% -43.2% 33% 33% -15.0%
≤30d 4 -52.9% -57.4% 25% 25% -48.0%
≤90d 4 -52.9% -57.4% 25% 25% -48.0%
all 4 -52.9% -57.4% 25% 25% -48.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -57.4% 25% -48.0%
10% -61.5% 25% -53.0%
15% -65.2% 25% -57.5%
20% -68.6% 25% -61.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -53% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$881 vs −$841 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$1,029
Realized−$1,515
Unrealized−$71
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage15d
Avg bet$1,009
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 54¢ 50¢ $1,100 $1,029 −$71 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $977 −$953 -98%
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? Jun 27 $90 −$70 -78%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1,320 +$881 +67%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,532 −$1,499 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 54¢ $1,126 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 44¢ $461 18h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $48 19h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $469 19h
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $19 20h
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $90 20h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,201 40h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $1,320 43h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $1,532 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,028.70 · official $1,049.07 · 9 history records