Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:24:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1be5…4c82 world 69 markets active 2h ago coverage 485d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate38%25W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% +$3
politics 20% $0
sports 15% −$13
other 12% $0
finance 3% +$1
economics 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.0% -9.5% 43% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 26 +0.9% -8.7% 50% 8% -9.4%
≤90d 65 -1.1% -10.5% 38% 3% -9.4%
all 66 -2.6% -11.8% 38% 3% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 3% -9.8%
10% -20.3% 0% -18.4%
15% -28.0% 0% -26.3%
20% -35.0% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

485d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses25 / 41
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)66 / 69
History coverage485d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 96¢ 95¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 57¢ 46¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-18%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 22¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $31 $0 +1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $39 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $38 $0 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $118 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $41 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $37 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $85 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $6 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $2 $0 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $39 −$1 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $23 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $152 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $43 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $150 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $7 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $117 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $41 +$5 +12%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $82 +$1 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $82 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 25 $42 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 24 $48 −$5 -11%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $8 +$1 +17%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $36 $0 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 20 $81 +$1 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 19 $40 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 16 $41 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $3 $0 +3%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $42 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $38 $0 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $12 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $42 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $41 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $100 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $3 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $7 $0 -1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $40 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 19 $141 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $23 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $37 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $106 $0 +0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 15 $16 $0 +0%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 14 $38 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $82 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 12 $42 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $38 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $84 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $38 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $31 3h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $31 5h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $17 24h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $22 24h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $39 24h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $30 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $8 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $38 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $32 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 39¢ $32 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $41 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $41 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 78¢ $37 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 78¢ $37 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $41 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $41 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $35 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $3 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $38 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $6 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $6 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 46¢ $38 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 47¢ $39 9d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 53¢ $23 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.45 · official $38.14 (match) · 290 history records