trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +0.3% | -9.2% | 50% | 0% | -9.3% |
| ≤30d | 7 | -0.9% | -10.3% | 29% | 0% | -10.3% |
| ≤90d | 7 | -0.9% | -10.3% | 29% | 0% | -10.3% |
| all | 17 | -11.1% | -19.6% | 35% | 12% | -12.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -19.6% | 12% | -12.2% |
| 10% | -27.3% | 0% | -20.6% |
| 15% | -34.3% | 0% | -28.3% |
| 20% | -40.7% | 0% | -35.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | No | 92¢ | 92¢ | $32 | $32 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | $0 | $0 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? | Jun 24 | $32 | $0 | +1% |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Jun 23 | $36 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | Jun 02 | $24 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 02 | $50 | −$1 | -1% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | May 31 | $36 | −$2 | -4% |
| Israel closes its airspace by May 31? | May 29 | $31 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | May 28 | $63 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Jun 24 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Jun 02 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? | May 20 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April? | Mar 20 | $6 | +$1 | +11% |
| Will Billy Donovan make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall | Mar 19 | $7 | −$1 | -11% |
| Hawks vs. Heat | Feb 26 | $7 | $0 | -4% |
| Trail Blazers vs. Wizards | Feb 25 | $7 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on February | Feb 25 | $5 | −$5 | -97% |
| Will Liverpool win on 2025-02-26? | Feb 25 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Will OpenAI have the top AI model on February 28? | Feb 25 | $11 | +$2 | +14% |