Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:01:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
1B 0x1be6…512d finance 132 markets active 2h ago coverage 565d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$264 (+2%) realized +$641 · open −$377
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate64%83W / 47L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$113per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$119now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$85
14 days+$111
30 days+$177
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 23% −$388
finance 22% −$374
culture 21% +$550
other 11% +$197
economics 10% −$25
sports 6% +$392
crypto 3% +$21
world 2% +$209
tech 2% +$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +31.0% +18.5% 100% 100% +19.7%
≤30d 9 +18.9% +7.6% 78% 78% +13.5%
≤90d 60 -35.8% -41.9% 37% 35% -30.9%
all 130 -3.4% -12.6% 64% 44% -2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 44% -2.9%
10% -21.0% 32% -12.2%
15% -28.6% 18% -20.7%
20% -35.6% 11% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$39 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

565d coverage
Net worth$119
Realized+$641
Unrealized−$377
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses83 / 47
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)130 / 132
History coverage565d
Avg bet$113
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 19¢ 1¢ $396 $18 −$378 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 +$11 +23%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $111 +$25 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $101 +$27 +27%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $102 +$43 +42%
Will Designer Brands (DBI) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -97%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $201 +$23 +11%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their May 25 $10 +$20 +198%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $20 +$13 +62%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 6–10 seconds during the day of their May 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day o May 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 11 $10 −$10 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 27 $100 +$42 +42%
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? Apr 27 $100 +$18 +18%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 12 $100 +$24 +24%
Will Trump say "Obama" during Address to the Nation? Apr 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will McCormick & Company (MKC) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during Address to Apr 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "Hormuz" during Address to the Nation? Apr 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Apr 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Academy Sports and Outdoors (ASO) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "Fake News" during Address to the Nation? Apr 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Chewy (CHWY) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Weibo (WB) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Powell say "Comment" during March press conference? Apr 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $115K in June? Apr 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Ryan Coogler win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? Apr 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Apr 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Meteora be accused of insider trading? Apr 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Powell say "Iran" during March press conference? Apr 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Trump and Xi shake hands for between 6 and 10 seconds on October Apr 12 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Apr 12 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 12 $100 −$7 -7%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Cinematography at the 98th Acad Apr 12 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Address to the Nation? Apr 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Apr 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Alibaba (BABA) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 12 $300 −$300 -100%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? Apr 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Apr 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Apr 12 $100 +$26 +26%
Will Donald Trump announce Lee Zeldin as the next United States Attorn Apr 08 $100 −$53 -53%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 08 $100 +$204 +204%
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 06 $10 +$28 +284%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $62 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $136 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $111 7d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 1¢ $14 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 67¢ $144 14d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 40¢ $51 14d
Will Designer Brands (DBI) beat quarterly earnings? BUY No 37¢ $10 14d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 78¢ $101 14d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $51 14d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 14d
Spurs vs. Thunder SELL Spurs 86¢ $224 23d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 86¢ $100 23d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 23¢ $251 23d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 63¢ $51 23d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 76¢ $50 23d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 6¢ $10 28d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 22¢ $516 28d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Knicks 61¢ $20 30d
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 6–10 seconds during the day of their BUY Yes 17¢ $5 40d
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day o BUY Yes 47¢ $10 40d
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their BUY Yes 33¢ $10 40d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 25¢ $52 40d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 18¢ $10 42d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 31¢ $103 42d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 45d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 46d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 23¢ $52 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $118.81 · official $118.81 (match) · 349 history records