Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:36:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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1B 0x1be7…a6e3 sports 89 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$36,371 (-45%) realized −$36,301 · open −$70
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate32%24W / 50L
Whale WR32%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$907per market
Trades / day32.8pace
Fees−$888est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$2,436now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$394
7 days−$12,772
14 days−$13,623
30 days−$36,611
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$36,860
other 13% +$210
crypto 1% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-39.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -31.6% -38.1% 30% 22% -67.7%
≤30d 74 -32.8% -39.2% 32% 26% -61.5%
≤90d 74 -32.8% -39.2% 32% 26% -61.5%
all 74 -32.8% -39.2% 32% 26% -61.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -39.2% 26% -61.5%
10% -45.1% 24% -65.2%
15% ← realistic here -50.4% 24% -68.5%
20% -55.2% 19% -71.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -59% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -59% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 32% (≥$646) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -40% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$349 vs −$900 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$2,436
Realized−$36,301
Unrealized−$70
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses24 / 50
Whale WR (big bets)32%
Est. fees paid−$888
Open positions12
Markets (closed)74 / 89
History coverage23d
Avg bet$907
Trades / day32.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 3.5 Corners Under 79¢ 76¢ $940 $910 −$29 (-3%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $633 $630 −$3 (-1%)
Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $359 $364 +$5 (+1%)
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $279 $243 −$37 (-13%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $160 $131 −$29 (-18%)
Will Luis Díaz record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 15¢ $4 $61 +$57 (+1314%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $43 $41 −$1 (-3%)
Will a player representing USA be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $20 $24 +$3 (+16%)
Will a player representing Colombia be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $33 $21 −$11 (-35%)
Will a player representing Portugal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 2¢ $18 $5 −$13 (-72%)
Will a player representing Netherlands be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $15 $5 −$10 (-66%)
Will Cody Gakpo record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 17 $556 +$394 +71%
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $104 −$79 -77%
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 15 $218 +$23 +10%
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $236 −$23 -10%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $153 −$1 -1%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $1,502 −$1,257 -84%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $433 −$423 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $172 −$168 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 14 $17,280 −$5,538 -32%
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) Jun 14 $676 −$659 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $5,466 −$4,583 -84%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 Jun 14 $369 −$360 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 199.5 Jun 14 $639 −$630 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 200.5 Jun 14 $97 −$97 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 205.5 Jun 14 $139 −$137 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 202.5 Jun 14 $266 −$263 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $390 −$383 -98%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $416 +$234 +56%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $440 +$480 +109%
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $272 −$220 -81%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $415 +$505 +121%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $237 +$593 +250%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $396 +$434 +109%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $428 −$420 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Neither team to score first? Jun 12 $94 −$92 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $347 −$101 -29%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27? Jun 11 $376 +$2 +0%
Libema Open (Doubles): Auger-Aliassime/Shapovalov vs Nouza/Oberleitner Jun 11 $57 +$27 +46%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $363 −$357 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 09 $186 −$183 -98%
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5) Jun 09 $296 −$290 -98%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? Jun 09 $8 −$2 -25%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? Jun 09 $549 −$18 -3%
De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 5.5 Jun 09 $239 +$183 +76%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $252 +$262 +104%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $537 +$70 +13%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 07 $1,369 +$25 +2%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $262 −$23 -9%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 Jun 07 $444 −$440 -99%
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $379 −$3 -1%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $315 −$311 -99%
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 06 $291 −$80 -27%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $321 +$9 +3%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 Jun 06 $314 −$309 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $42 −$41 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $3,275 −$499 -15%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 05 $341 +$34 +10%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 04 $903 +$1,097 +121%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $768 −$759 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $2,486 +$1,287 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 79¢ $946 1h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 55¢ $7 8h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 55¢ $7 8h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 55¢ $7 8h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 56¢ $55 8h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 57¢ $87 8h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 57¢ $12 8h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 57¢ $6 8h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 57¢ $9 8h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 57¢ $23 8h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $214 8h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 59¢ $71 8h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 59¢ $271 8h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $342 8h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $60 11h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $35 11h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AN BUY 11¢ $103 11h
Will Luis Díaz record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA Wor BUY Yes 1¢ $2 11h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $312 11h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $473 11h
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 12h
Will a player representing Netherlands be the top goalscorer at the 20 SELL Yes 1¢ $1 12h
Will a player representing Netherlands be the top goalscorer at the 20 SELL Yes 1¢ $1 12h
Will a player representing Portugal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 SELL Yes 7¢ $2 12h
Will a player representing Netherlands be the top goalscorer at the 20 BUY Yes 0¢ $1 12h
Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 12h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $38 14h
Will a player representing Portugal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 SELL Yes 5¢ $12 14h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $35 14h
Will a player representing USA be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA BUY Yes 2¢ $1 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,435.57 · official $2,535.67 · 815 history records