Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:53:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1be8…154b sports 29 markets active 0h ago coverage 163d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$67 (-9%) realized −$62 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate56%15W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days−$40
14 days−$65
30 days−$65
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$38
other 27% −$17
crypto 10% −$31
world 1% $0
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +2.1% -7.7% 59% 35% -15.2%
≤30d 20 -11.4% -19.8% 50% 30% -18.3%
≤90d 20 -11.4% -19.8% 50% 30% -18.3%
all 27 -5.0% -14.1% 56% 37% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 37% -19.1%
10% -22.3% 26% -26.8%
15% -29.8% 15% -33.9%
20% -36.7% 11% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$11 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

163d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized−$62
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses15 / 12
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)27 / 29
History coverage163d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Team Falcons 80¢ 52¢ $20 $13 −$7 (-34%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 70¢ 90¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $100 +$5 +5%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $101 −$27 -27%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $4 +$3 +89%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $5 −$1 -17%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $14 +$5 +37%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $17 −$6 -36%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $100 +$15 +15%
Will G2 reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $100 −$23 -23%
Will Falcons reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $100 +$4 +4%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $5 +$2 +34%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $15 −$3 -17%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $5 +$4 +88%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $5 +$1 +28%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 15 $20 −$11 -54%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $17 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $16 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $14 −$11 -78%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 −$9 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Feb 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Feb 16 $20 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Feb 16 $23 +$1 +6%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,800 by end of February? Feb 16 $10 +$2 +23%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A Feb 03 $7 +$1 +12%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 01 $1 +$1 +138%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jan 10 $8 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY Team Falcons 80¢ $20 14m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $105 57m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 94¢ $100 1h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 56¢ $74 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 70¢ $7 2h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 75¢ $101 12h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $7 21h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 38¢ $4 22h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 44¢ $5 23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $5 23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 81¢ $4 23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 73¢ $14 23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 50¢ $10 23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 52¢ $4 24h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 39¢ $10 27h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 99¢ $9 47h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 14¢ $2 47h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 65¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 99¢ $115 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 86¢ $100 2d
Will G2 reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 71¢ $77 2d
Will Falcons reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 88¢ $104 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 76¢ $7 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 99¢ $7 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 73¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 73¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 76¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 67¢ $8 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 85¢ $10 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 99¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.08 · official $25.80 · 72 history records