Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T15:03:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
1B 0x1bef…9338 sports 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$14 (+6%) realized +$15 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate80%4W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% −$7
other 29% +$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +1.6% -8.0% 80% 60% +1.9%
≤30d 5 +1.6% -8.0% 80% 60% +1.9%
≤90d 5 +1.6% -8.0% 80% 60% +1.9%
all 5 +1.6% -8.0% 80% 60% +1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 60% +1.9%
10% -16.8% 40% -7.9%
15% -24.9% 20% -16.8%
20% -32.2% 0% -24.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$19 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.96 per $1 lost it wins $1.96
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$78
Realized+$15
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses4 / 1
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)5 / 7
History coverage7d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Card) Manuel Torres 52¢ 52¢ $53 $52 −$1 (-1%)
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Main Card) Shara Magomedov 77¢ 76¢ $26 $25 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $22 +$4 +18%
Piracicaba: Matias Soto vs Ignacio Monzon Jun 22 $30 +$3 +8%
Piracicaba: Juan Bautista Torres vs Alex Hernandez Jun 22 $30 +$10 +34%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 22 $43 +$20 +48%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $19 −$19 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Mai BUY Shara Magomedov 77¢ $26 1h
Will Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 2h
Will Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 84¢ $22 3h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Manuel Torres 52¢ $54 4h
Piracicaba: Matias Soto vs Ignacio Monzon SELL Matias Soto 98¢ $33 4d
Piracicaba: Juan Bautista Torres vs Alex Hernandez SELL Juan Bautista Torres 100¢ $40 4d
Piracicaba: Matias Soto vs Ignacio Monzon BUY Matias Soto 90¢ $30 4d
Piracicaba: Juan Bautista Torres vs Alex Hernandez BUY Juan Bautista Torres 74¢ $30 4d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $19 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $43 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $77.97 · official $77.97 (match) · 11 history records