Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:23:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1bf1…ffbd sports 123 markets active 3h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,640 (-5%) realized −$1,640 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate59%72W / 51L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$290per market
Trades / day12.2pace
Fees−$459est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,731
7 days−$2,307
14 days−$1,945
30 days−$2,017
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$1,429
other 7% −$519
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 91 +4.2% -5.7% 57% 48% -16.4%
≤30d 115 +0.5% -9.1% 57% 47% -14.7%
≤90d 123 +2.6% -7.2% 59% 49% -14.5%
all 123 +2.6% -7.2% 59% 49% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 49% -14.5%
10% -16.1% 41% -22.6%
15% -24.2% 36% -30.1%
20% -31.6% 26% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$117 vs −$203 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,640
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses72 / 51
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$459
Open positions0
Markets (closed)123 / 123
History coverage56d
Avg bet$290
Trades / day12.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 123 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $558 −$533 -96%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $537 −$530 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $152 +$28 +18%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $493 −$493 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $278 +$154 +56%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $441 −$441 -100%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $533 +$476 +89%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $42 +$58 +138%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $1,038 −$74 -7%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $340 −$181 -53%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $99 −$99 -100%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $237 −$237 -100%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $625 −$625 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $1,042 −$1,042 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $120 +$80 +67%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $336 +$137 +41%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $871 +$394 +45%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $98 +$13 +13%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $289 +$141 +49%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $187 +$113 +60%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 −$6 -21%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $1,444 −$242 -17%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne Jun 18 $110 −$110 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $45 +$15 +33%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $781 +$22 +3%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne Jun 18 $296 +$206 +70%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $510 +$294 +58%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $1,241 +$360 +29%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $308 −$116 -38%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $550 +$50 +9%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $854 −$854 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 18 $181 +$312 +172%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $504 +$370 +73%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $185 −$185 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $358 −$358 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $233 −$173 -74%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 AND Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 AND Uzbekis Jun 18 $171 +$96 +56%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 AND Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 AND Portuga Jun 18 $1 +$1 +113%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $1,006 −$405 -40%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $174 +$26 +15%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $85 +$15 +18%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $134 −$107 -80%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $123 +$80 +65%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $148 −$148 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $326 −$239 -73%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $294 −$294 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $600 +$400 +67%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $36 +$64 +175%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 2¢ $25 3h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 27¢ $81 5h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $477 5h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $537 5h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 60¢ $116 6h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 60¢ $64 6h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 50¢ $152 6h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $432 8h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 64¢ $278 9h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 67¢ $34 10h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 46¢ $191 11h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 46¢ $43 11h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 46¢ $3 11h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 46¢ $8 11h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 46¢ $4 11h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 46¢ $4 11h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 46¢ $4 11h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 46¢ $204 11h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 61¢ $123 13h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 62¢ $317 13h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 67¢ $95 14h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 67¢ $5 14h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 67¢ $72 14h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 67¢ $119 14h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 67¢ $60 14h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 67¢ $6 14h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 67¢ $21 14h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 67¢ $44 14h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 67¢ $4 14h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 67¢ $80 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 741 history records