Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:46:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1B
0x1bf3…d220
sports · 101 markets active 1h ago
3.0score
−$58 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$97 · open +$7
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$107
Realized−$97
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses45 / 52
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions4
Markets (closed)97 / 101
History coverage586d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%
Chart Positions 4 History 97 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$108
14 days+$108
30 days+$108
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Team Liquid 47¢ 58¢ $25 $31 +$6 (+24%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+2%)
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Over 36¢ 36¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Base launch a token in 2025? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 0.5 Over 55¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Cloud9 42¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner T1 50¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 0.5 Under 24¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will any Louvre heist robbers be arrested by October 31? No 64¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will any Louvre heist robbers be arrested by December 31? No 30¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22? No 33¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Grokipedia released by October 31? No 9¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 25? No 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30? No 20¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 0 Scotland? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Hyperliquid launch stocks perps in 2025? No 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 15? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale? No 22¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by December 31? No 3¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Grokipedia released by December 31? No 3¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 0 Scotland? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? No 2¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Taylor Swift on top two spots of Billboard Hot 100 for Oct 25th? No 2¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $26 −$9 -37%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $51 +$65 +128%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $31 −$3 -9%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $25 +$18 +73%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 0 Scotland? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 0 Scotland? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$8 +76%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $46 −$2 -4%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 13 $41 −$12 -30%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $51 +$83 +162%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 25? Nov 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Nov 24 $10 −$5 -49%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by December 31? Nov 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30? Nov 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22? Nov 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15? Nov 05 $22 +$13 +57%
Will Bianca Censori rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 202 Nov 02 $25 −$3 -13%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 15? Oct 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Will any Louvre heist robbers be arrested by December 31? Oct 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will any Louvre heist robbers be arrested by October 31? Oct 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Hyperliquid launch stocks perps in 2025? Oct 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Grokipedia released by December 31? Oct 24 $15 −$15 -100%
Taylor Swift on top two spots of Billboard Hot 100 for Oct 25th? Oct 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Grokipedia released by October 31? Oct 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 19 $50 +$72 +144%
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with European Union in July? Oct 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bitcoin close above $115K on July 31? Oct 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the New York Yankees win the 2025 World Series? Oct 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Diddy be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison? Oct 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3800 in July? Oct 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Diddy be sentenced to no prison time? Oct 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31? Oct 19 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3700 in July? Oct 19 $50 −$50 -100%
US government shutdown by October 1? Oct 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Bitcoin Dominance hit 60% or 70% first? Oct 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 11% and 12% in Oct 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2900 July 14–20? Oct 19 $22 −$22 -100%
Clarity Act signed into law in 2025? Sep 29 $20 +$63 +315%
Will Base launch a token in 2025? Sep 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 15? Aug 28 $50 +$21 +43%
Linea airdrop in Q3 2025? Aug 28 $100 −$51 -50%
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with South Korea in July? Jul 29 $20 −$11 -53%
Astronomer Divorce Parlay Jul 29 $25 −$10 -38%
Will Diddy be sentenced to between 5 and 10 years in prison? Jul 29 $25 −$6 -23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 41% +$180
other 26% +$100
crypto 18% −$144
world 8% −$4
politics 8% −$209
culture 0% −$10
finance 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 36¢ $25 58m
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Team Liquid 47¢ $25 58m
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 34¢ $28 12h
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 43¢ $51 12h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 19¢ $16 13h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 36¢ $31 13h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 50¢ $10 14h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 29¢ $26 14h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $26 17h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $26 17h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) SELL Haiti 99¢ $44 17h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Haiti 57¢ $25 19h
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 0 Scotland? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 19h
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 0 Scotland? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 19h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 0.5 BUY Under 24¢ $5 19h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 0.5 BUY Over 55¢ $10 19h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 19h
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner SELL Team Liquid 100¢ $18 22h
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 56¢ $10 22h
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Liquid 100¢ $58 23h
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 43¢ $25 23h
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner SELL Cloud9 41¢ $18 23h
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner BUY Cloud9 42¢ $20 23h
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs SELL Cloud9 36¢ $28 24h
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Cloud9 47¢ $20 24h
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Cloud9 53¢ $20 24h
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 3 Winner SELL LYON 99¢ $134 6d
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 3 Winner BUY LYON 37¢ $51 6d
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 25? BUY No 1¢ $5 202d
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? SELL No 27¢ $5 202d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -24.1% -31.3% 29% 29% +26.0%
≤30d 14 -24.1% -31.3% 29% 29% +26.0%
≤90d 14 -24.1% -31.3% 29% 29% +26.0%
all 97 -7.8% -16.6% 46% 35% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 35% -13.6%
10% -24.5% 26% -21.9%
15% -31.8% 14% -29.4%
20% -38.5% 11% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106.78 · official $101.99 · 198 history records