Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:52:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1bf4…3feb crypto 152 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (67 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$224 (-19%) realized −$224 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -60% what you keep after slip
Net edge-60%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate15%23W / 129L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day66.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$249
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (67 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-52.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 152 -47.9% -52.9% 15% 12% -28.8%
≤30d 152 -47.9% -52.9% 15% 12% -28.8%
≤90d 152 -47.9% -52.9% 15% 12% -28.8%
all 152 -47.9% -52.9% 15% 12% -28.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover66.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -52.9% 12% -28.8%
10% ← realistic here -57.4% 11% -35.6%
15% -61.5% 11% -41.8%
20% -65.3% 10% -47.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -48% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -41% → late -55% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$5 · ×3.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$224
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses23 / 129
Open positions0
Markets (closed)152 / 152
History coverage3d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day66.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 152 Trades
no open positions (116 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$12 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$74 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $12 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$6 +312%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$33 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $13 −$13 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $46 −$45 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$24 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $12 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$35 +841%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $6 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $16 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $13 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $26 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $12 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $15 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $11 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $13 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $6 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $46 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 239 history records