Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:11:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
1B 0x1bf7…ea54 weather 576 markets active 1h ago coverage 39d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 39d only
✗ bot/MM pace (81 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,553 (-6%) realized −$1,256 · open −$297
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate41%229W / 335L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day81.3pace
Fees−$108est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$193now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$336
7 days+$43
14 days−$269
30 days−$1,109
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 53% −$676
sports 20% +$67
other 10% −$195
finance 8% +$4
crypto 5% −$185
politics 1% −$72
world 1% −$36
culture 1% −$6
tech 0% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (81 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 185 +0.4% -9.2% 30% 12% -8.9%
≤30d 482 -8.3% -17.1% 35% 19% -14.0%
≤90d 564 -4.1% -13.3% 41% 21% -12.4%
all 564 -4.1% -13.3% 41% 21% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover81.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.3% 21% -12.4%
10% ← realistic here -21.6% 15% -20.8%
15% -29.1% 12% -28.4%
20% -36.1% 9% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$13 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$193
Realized−$1,256
Unrealized−$297
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses229 / 335
Est. fees paid−$108
Open positions6
Markets (closed)564 / 576
History coverage39d ⚠
Avg bet$47
Trades / day81.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 564 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? No 65¢ 16¢ $320 $76 −$244 (-76%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? No 83¢ 100¢ $42 $50 +$8 (+20%)
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 53¢ 50¢ $37 $35 −$2 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? Yes 31¢ 15¢ $60 $29 −$31 (-52%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? Yes 11¢ 1¢ $31 $3 −$28 (-91%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 18? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 18? Jun 18 $12 −$1 -8%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $30 +$30 +101%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 18? Jun 18 $38 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 18? Jun 18 $40 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $9 −$1 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $30 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 18? Jun 18 $119 −$8 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 18? Jun 18 $77 −$3 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 18? Jun 18 $7 $0 -4%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $13 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $24 −$2 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 18? Jun 18 $19 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $7 −$2 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $4 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 18? Jun 18 $19 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $50 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 18? Jun 18 $3 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 18? Jun 18 $9 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 18? Jun 18 $3 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 18? Jun 18 $22 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 18? Jun 17 $33 −$2 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 18? Jun 17 $15 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 18? Jun 17 $43 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? Jun 17 $37 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 18? Jun 17 $19 $0 -2%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $31 +$18 +59%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $47 +$7 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $55 +$16 +30%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Aust Jun 17 $14 +$147 +1021%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $44 −$13 -30%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Ira Jun 17 $17 +$84 +481%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $28 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 17? Jun 17 $0 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 -77%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $38 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $11 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? Jun 17 $48 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 17? Jun 17 $46 −$2 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $40 −$2 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $63 +$57 +90%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 17? Jun 17 $21 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 17? Jun 17 $21 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $176 +$42 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 18? SELL No 28¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 42¢ $19 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 42¢ $22 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 42¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 42¢ $9 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $60 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 18? SELL No 99¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 18? SELL Yes 31¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 18? SELL Yes 34¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 18? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 18? SELL No 63¢ $36 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 18? SELL No 68¢ $24 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 18? SELL Yes 40¢ $18 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 18? SELL Yes 25¢ $23 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 18? SELL No 62¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 18? BUY No 62¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 18? SELL Yes 41¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $193.22 · official $193.22 (match) · 3500 history records