Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:18:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
1C 0x1c0a…7fb2 sports 20 markets active 6h ago coverage 45d
RISKYcopy with care Fading edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$268 (+21%) realized +$268 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +57% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +42% what you keep after slip
Net edge+42%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%6W / 14L
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$90
7 days+$235
14 days+$235
30 days+$235
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$13
sports 37% +$290
crypto 24% −$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+42.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +67.8% +51.8% 25% 25% +7.5%
≤30d 16 +67.8% +51.8% 25% 25% +7.5%
≤90d 20 +57.0% +42.0% 30% 30% +7.5%
all 20 +57.0% +42.0% 30% 30% +7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +42.0% 30% +7.5%
10% +28.4% 30% -2.8%
15% +16.0% 30% -12.2%
20% +4.6% 30% -20.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +57% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +122% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$131 vs −$40 · ×3.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$268
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses6 / 14
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage45d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $300 −$42 -14%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $30 −$30 -99%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $102 +$192 +188%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 +$136 +442%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $21 +$265 +1288%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 +$192 +188%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $185 −$181 -97%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $203 −$18 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET May 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET May 07 $1 +$1 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET May 07 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 6, 5AM ET May 06 $2 +$2 +119%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $122 5h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $30 16h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $31 38h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 34¢ $102 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $30 2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes $21 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $31 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $102 3d
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 3d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $149 3d
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 100¢ $285 3d
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes $21 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $102 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $137 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 11¢ $185 4d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $186 4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $151 4d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $203 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $0 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $2 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $2 44d
XRP Up or Down - May 6, 5AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $5 45d
XRP Up or Down - May 6, 5AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 45d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 43 history records