Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:42:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1C 0x1c0a…cbc9 sports 269 markets active 1h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,186 (+4%) realized +$3,211 · open −$25
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate43%115W / 151L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$326per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$832est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$825
7 days+$602
14 days+$3,475
30 days+$2,073
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$8,267
other 39% +$11,178
crypto 5% −$927
world 2% +$228
politics 0% −$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +22.3% +10.6% 52% 52% -7.5%
≤30d 65 +4.6% -5.3% 46% 45% -5.1%
≤90d 237 +1.4% -8.3% 41% 40% -8.3%
all 266 +4.2% -5.7% 43% 42% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 42% -7.2%
10% -14.7% 40% -16.1%
15% -23.0% 38% -24.2%
20% -30.5% 29% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -3% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$291 vs −$207 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$109
Realized+$3,211
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses115 / 151
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$832
Open positions2
Markets (closed)266 / 269
History coverage119d
Avg bet$326
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 266 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 11¢ $120 $96 −$24 (-20%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $14 $13 −$1 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 56 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 20 $103 +$94 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $102 +$47 +46%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $116 −$114 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $640 −$25 -4%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $255 +$386 +152%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $1,827 −$1,578 -86%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $876 +$955 +109%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $2,010 −$1,137 -57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,359 +$652 +48%
World Cup Goals H2H: Yamal vs. Mbappe Jun 18 $5 −$4 -74%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $948 +$413 +44%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $481 +$467 +97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $354 +$127 +36%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $212 +$143 +67%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $120 +$92 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$49 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $27 −$25 -94%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $249 −$244 -98%
World Cup Goals H2H: Mbappe vs. Kane Jun 15 $271 −$24 -9%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $984 −$970 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,399 −$1,385 -99%
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $2,021 +$760 +38%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $781 −$765 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,116 −$984 -46%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $510 −$324 -63%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $778 +$1,330 +171%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $1,150 +$717 +62%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $145 +$380 +262%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $130 +$650 +498%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $97 −$95 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3,329 +$1,817 +55%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $4,031 −$704 -18%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,926 +$2,108 +109%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $1,554 +$377 +24%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1,573 −$19 -1%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $118 +$158 +134%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,000 +$414 +41%
Will Osters IF win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $506 +$495 +98%
Modena: Xinyu Gao vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 09 $162 −$160 -99%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 5.5 Jun 09 $105 +$56 +54%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $513 −$409 -80%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 06 $150 −$148 -99%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 04 $328 −$321 -98%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $320 +$8 +2%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 03 $712 −$704 -99%
Wales vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 02 $398 +$316 +79%
Set 1 Winner: Mensik vs Fonseca Jun 02 $204 −$200 -98%
Morocco vs. Madagascar: O/U 3.5 Jun 02 $481 −$173 -36%
Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 Jun 02 $204 −$200 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $102 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $116 13h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 AND Will United States win on 202 BUY 39¢ $617 30h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 60¢ $615 30h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $640 32h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 39¢ $255 37h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL Qatar $250 37h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 49¢ $1,827 38h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,830 38h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $876 39h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 23¢ $873 39h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $2,010 42h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 80¢ $2,011 42h
World Cup Goals H2H: Yamal vs. Mbappe SELL Yamal $1 45h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $1,359 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $948 2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $481 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 75¢ $482 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $354 3d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $212 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $120 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up $22 3d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 38¢ $249 4d
World Cup Goals H2H: Mbappe vs. Kane SELL Kane 42¢ $247 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $984 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $108.93 · official $108.93 (match) · 650 history records