Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:28:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
1C 0x1c0d…0b4a crypto 42 markets active 21h ago coverage 3d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$43 (+21%) realized +$43 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate69%29W / 13L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day14.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% +$1
other 4% +$31
sports 2% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+26.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +39.6% +26.3% 69% 67% +7.9%
≤30d 42 +39.6% +26.3% 69% 67% +7.9%
≤90d 42 +39.6% +26.3% 69% 67% +7.9%
all 42 +39.6% +26.3% 69% 67% +7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +26.3% 67% +7.9%
10% +14.2% 52% -2.4%
15% +3.2% 29% -11.8%
20% -7.0% 21% -20.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +40% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late +54% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.76 per $1 lost it wins $1.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses29 / 13
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage3d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day14.9
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 +$23 +1116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +65%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$9 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $2 +$12 +596%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 +$7 +140%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 21h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 21h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 77 history records