Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:31:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1C
0x1c0f…99d0
weather · 315 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$7,454 +18%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$9,182 · open −$1,727
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5,090
Realized+$9,182
Unrealized−$1,727
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses67 / 235
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Open positions13
Markets (closed)302 / 315
History coverage44d
Avg bet$131
Trades / day71.9
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 13 History 302 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,289
7 days+$3,731
14 days+$4,046
30 days+$6,813
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 50¢ 83¢ $2,500 $4,152 +$1,652 (+66%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 17¢ $2,500 $848 −$1,652 (-66%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on June 12? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $53 $29 −$24 (-46%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on June 12? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $26 $22 −$5 (-17%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? Yes 2¢ 5¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+106%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 12? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on June 12? Yes 7¢ 12¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+64%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 12? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-17%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 12? No 2¢ 6¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+141%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 12? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+61%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 12? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 12? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $51 $1 −$50 (-98%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 12? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 12? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $36 +$104 +286%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 12 $113 −$10 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 12? Jun 12 $72 −$5 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $11 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $52 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 12 $16 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 12 $50 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 12 $29 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 12? Jun 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 12 $219 −$9 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 12 $6 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 12 $30 −$13 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 12 $163 −$16 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 12? Jun 12 $4 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on June 11? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 34°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 11? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 33°C on June 11? Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 11? Jun 12 $44 −$44 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? Jun 12 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on June 11? Jun 12 $7 +$2 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 11? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 11? Jun 12 $53 −$4 -8%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on Ju Jun 12 $38 −$38 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 11? Jun 12 $62 −$62 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11? Jun 12 $60 −$59 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 11? Jun 12 $62 −$19 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $19 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $41 −$41 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $358 +$1,001 +279%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 −$1 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $526 +$1,644 +312%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 9? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 11 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 9? Jun 11 $54 −$42 -78%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $491 −$5 -1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 $0 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 9? Jun 10 $202 +$10 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 9? Jun 10 $85 −$67 -79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 49% +$6,613
politics 31% +$2,500
other 19% −$1,658
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 12? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 8m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 13m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 18m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 12? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 29m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 12? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 31m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 12? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 31m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 12? BUY No 2¢ $2 31m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY Yes 7¢ $0 36m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY Yes 7¢ $2 36m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY Yes 7¢ $1 36m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY Yes 7¢ $0 36m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY Yes 1¢ $0 39m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 12? SELL Yes 97¢ $134 40m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY Yes 1¢ $0 43m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 12? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 45m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 12? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 45m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 12? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 45m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY Yes 1¢ $0 45m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY Yes 1¢ $0 45m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY Yes 1¢ $0 45m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY Yes 1¢ $0 45m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY Yes 1¢ $0 46m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY Yes 1¢ $0 46m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY Yes 1¢ $0 46m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY Yes 1¢ $2 46m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY Yes 2¢ $10 47m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY Yes 2¢ $1 48m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY Yes 1¢ $0 48m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY Yes 1¢ $0 49m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY Yes 2¢ $0 50m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 87 -10.2% -18.7% 20% 10% +60.8%
≤30d 133 -13.4% -21.7% 20% 13% +18.7%
≤90d 302 -6.1% -15.1% 22% 17% +14.7%
all 302 -6.1% -15.1% 22% 17% +14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover71.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.1% 17% +14.7%
10% ← realistic here -23.2% 13% +3.8%
15% -30.6% 11% -6.3%
20% -37.4% 10% -15.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,090.33 · official $5,090.44 (match) · 3500 history records