Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:43:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
1C 0x1c13…6cb8 crypto 94 markets active 0h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$148 (-6%) realized −$147 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate58%53W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$150now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$72
7 days+$135
14 days+$135
30 days+$135
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% +$77
other 19% +$55
world 12% −$278
sports 3% +$18
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +84.7% +67.1% 65% 61% +4.5%
≤30d 23 +84.7% +67.1% 65% 61% +4.5%
≤90d 39 +43.8% +30.1% 59% 56% -1.8%
all 91 +16.8% +5.7% 58% 54% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.7% 54% -14.9%
10% -4.4% 46% -23.0%
15% -13.7% 36% -30.4%
20% -22.1% 26% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$20 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$150
Realized−$147
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses53 / 38
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)91 / 94
History coverage116d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 24 $31 −$28 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 24 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 24 $62 +$16 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 24 $31 +$13 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 24 $62 +$11 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 24 $31 +$15 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 24 $31 +$20 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 24 $31 +$18 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 24 $61 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 24 $63 −$18 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 24 $51 +$13 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 24 $41 +$8 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 24 $21 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$1 +23%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $58 +$32 +55%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $43 +$20 +48%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $8 −$6 -78%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$53 +52%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $39 +$24 +62%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $12 −$11 -95%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Apr 17 $10 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Apr 17 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Apr 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Apr 17 $10 +$5 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Apr 16 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Apr 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Apr 16 $4 +$2 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Apr 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Apr 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Apr 16 $10 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Apr 16 $10 +$17 +171%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Apr 14 $8 −$6 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Apr 14 $10 +$9 +92%
Hawks vs. Heat Apr 13 $31 +$10 +32%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10? Apr 12 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-10? Apr 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Mar 13 $5 +$7 +140%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 13 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Mar 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Mar 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 11 $1 $0 -4%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-15? Mar 11 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Mar 10 $20 +$19 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Mar 10 $20 +$10 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Mar 10 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Mar 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Mar 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Down 6¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $31 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $31 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $45 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $31 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $33 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $31 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $44 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $31 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $38 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $31 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $35 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $31 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $46 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $31 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $149.59 · official $149.60 (match) · 257 history records