Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:00:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
1C 0x1c13…d015 other 62 markets active 2h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$70 (+6%) realized +$70 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%34W / 26L
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$72
14 days−$107
30 days−$88
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% +$179
sports 23% −$112
crypto 1% −$10
world 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -20.1% -27.7% 43% 43% -31.7%
≤30d 18 -14.4% -22.5% 44% 44% -31.0%
≤90d 60 -1.7% -11.1% 57% 57% -4.5%
all 60 -1.7% -11.1% 57% 57% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 57% -4.5%
10% -19.6% 52% -13.6%
15% -27.4% 43% -22.0%
20% -34.5% 33% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$14 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$70
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses34 / 26
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)60 / 62
History coverage88d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$3 +29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $40 +$23 +57%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $57 +$23 +40%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $21 +$5 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$12 +119%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $5 +$13 +250%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $10 +$16 +158%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $20 +$13 +65%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Set Handicap: Gauff (-1.5) vs Svitolina (+1.5) May 16 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Manchester City win the 2025-2026 FA Cup? May 16 $10 +$4 +39%
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $10 +$16 +158%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? May 13 $34 +$8 +24%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $10 +$7 +67%
Will Sean Strickland be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, May 10 $10 +$8 +76%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $16 +$12 +76%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score May 06 $43 +$13 +30%
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5) May 03 $23 +$6 +26%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $10 −$10 -98%
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Zverev May 03 $5 +$1 +18%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $10 −$10 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $10 +$7 +73%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $20 −$20 -99%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 02 $5 +$3 +58%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-04-09? Apr 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 26 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 26 $5 −$5 -100%
BMW Open: Alexander Zverev vs Flavio Cobolli Apr 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-04-11? Apr 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Madrid Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Alex Michelsen Apr 26 $5 +$2 +44%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $10 +$5 +54%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $20 +$17 +86%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 12 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $15 +$14 +93%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $40 +$19 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 17h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-1 BUY 30¢ $9 20h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $40 20h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $57 41h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 BUY Under 80¢ $50 43h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $21 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $30 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $21 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 5d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 6d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $10 6d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 24¢ $36 11d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 22d
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven BUY Rico $10 26d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 29d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 32d
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 32d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 33d
Set Handicap: Gauff (-1.5) vs Svitolina (+1.5) SELL Svitolina 100¢ $15 33d
Will Manchester City win the 2025-2026 FA Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 33d
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 34d
Will Manchester City win the 2025-2026 FA Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 34d
Set Handicap: Gauff (-1.5) vs Svitolina (+1.5) BUY Svitolina 66¢ $10 34d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $42 36d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? BUY Yes 80¢ $34 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.59 · official $58.59 · 114 history records